Are we heading towards a 1929-like economic crash?
By Nicole Belle Sunday Oct 14, 2007 5:19pm
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There are some alarming signals and trends that are making economists very nervous that we are hurtling towards another economic crash. On Friday's Bill Moyers Journal, guests Robert Kuttner and William H. Donaldson spoke on the parallels they see, especially as it relates to the giant inequities brought on by under-regulated hedge funds.
WILLIAM DONALDSON: Absolutely. The SEC is-- that's its role: investor protection. And a protection of the markets themselves, to make sure that they're being run properly.
ROBERT KUTTNER:And I would add that there are two purposes to regulation. One is to protect investors; the other's to protect the whole system from systemic risk, from meltdowns. And when people talk about George Soros can take care of himself, people forget that other purpose of regulation, it's to protect the whole system. And the other problem is that pension funds and university endowments and-- the endowments of charities are now investing in hedge funds. So it is funds that sort of--
BILL MOYERS: That scare you?
ROBERT KUTTNER: --little-- terrifies me.
BILL MOYERS: Terrifies you.
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Another Republican Great Depression. Just like 1929 and Oct. 1987. They always come at the end of aRepbulican reign. WHY IS THAT?
Summer lasted a generation, a generation, then the winter winds.
A bounty harvest that seemed so endless, it seemed so endless,
Until it gave what it could give.
Prosperity will have its season
And even when its here, it's going by
And when it's gone we pretend we know the reason
And all the roots grow deeper when it's dry.
David Wilcox
I don't necessarily blame the Republicans for it, I think it's both parties working together to ruin us as a nation (and investors.) They spend more than they take in, and then when they're still short on cash, they print more. Our government is filled with people who are all greedy, and we pay the price.
"computer says yes"-sound clip Stephanie Miller plays
I've been covering this on AL Jazeera English for a year now...
here's one of 10 films for them;
rigged markets part 1
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=8z66kmPRl5Y
rigged markets part 2
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_3H6uEyR66M
I've got a new film for them coming out next week: "Anarchists in Suits" it's about goldman, JPmorgan and other financial terrorists ruining the German economy too....
Oil closed at 86 a barrel......home values are going down..wages have flattend out and dropped in some places.Developers are dumping their projects.Health Care?not even going there..interest rates have to go up...inflation??.....What???...Me worry?
Pockets people...pockets. Why must we attack the market when Thompson tells us it's only pockets in this country that the economy sucks.
hayduke @ 1:
Because they take everything they can ...while they can.....and to the rest of us they say.....let them eat dirt.
Who knows - when things are going well the economists worry, when things are going badly,the economists worry. The only sure thing is that as long as the corporate keptocracy and their mostly Repbulican minions reign, we will all be screwed one way or another.
Of course the Larry Kudlows of the world would argue you NEED to pay these guys 50, 100, 500 million a year to keep them in the game, to motivate them.....the haves soaking the have nots is a story as old as Job...
Off subject, but I just saw the most caustic, offensive piece of shit on Youtube just now.
Check out the video, which is actually amusing at first in that braindead, yammering way neo-cons and conservatives sometimes are...but at the very end, notice the African American guy that appears guy that appears next to Bill Clinton...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlLjvDf8F_E&mode=related&search=
That is a well publicized picture of a looter from Katrina, also known as 'Heineken Man' because he was photographed looting a tub of Heineken bottles. Racist doushebags!
mudshark @ 7:
Pretty good summary. Am I worried? Yes, yes I am. I work for the state in a pretty "needed" job, so I feel relatively safe in my job, but if we experience another depression, I will definitely be worried about losing my job. Right now though I'm just paying down all my debt and saving whatever I can. Soon I'll be investing a great deal of my savings into Gold (which went up $8.40/oz today.... Shoot!) and other precious metals which hold their value well, unlike our dollar.
It's coming...I don't think it'll be as bad as 1929..but it'll be worse than 1987.
and the amount of money that the country owes China.....scary.
Of course we are, and that idiot in office doesn't have a fucking clue:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1538610220071015
Jackson @ 13:
8.40 an ounce?.....in the mid 80's it was around 300.00 an ounce...and topped out around 400.00+ in the 90's
mudshark @ 17:
It went up $8.40/oz... it closed at $763 something I believe.
We either have to face the fact that we need to live within a pay-as-you-go budget (federal, state, local AND personal) or we end up leaving our kids an impossible bill to pay. They are going to "Soylent Green" our ass and I won't blame them when they do.
Hopefully, some statesmen (plural) will have the balls to say we either have to raise taxes or stop spending - or both - and face some hard times for our past spending sins. But none of these idiots want to address the dozens of elephants in the room.
My mistake. It was at a high of 760 today, right now the asking price is 758.4.
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Sure hope it happens while Dubya is in the White House: I'd like him to get the blame.
Jackson @ 18:
whew....I was wondering what was going on.......wow....763.00.....not me...I have a small house built and payed for in Mexico....in full...don't owe a dime on it.....I hope this can be averted.
mudshark @ 22:
Nice!!!! if things take a turn for the worse, I'll bring what gold I have down to Mexico and we can party. On me. :)
Jackson...I just turned 50.......I'd like to work for atleast...3 to 5 more years.....I really hope this can be averted....but you know who they will blame.....CLINTON...only this time it'll be Hillary.
Jackson @ 23:
We can work something out...Got Fish???
DUUUUUHHHHH!!!!!
Anyone who is aware of what's going on in this country has seen this coming from a mile off...it was probably inevitable, but Bush has certainly hastened it's coming...we are no longer top dog...we're a bunch of has beens....and the rest of the world no longer respects us or even fears us...
I love this country and find this sad, because it didn't have to happen this way...
We've been kidnapped, raped, and left in the alley by BUSHCO...they've already moved most of their assests offshore.
max keiser @ 6:
Indeed! Many have been covering (this stuff)!! Rigged markets...the (collapse)of the federal reserve and the growing worthlessness of our paper oil (backed) dollar.... and its replacement with a new fiat currency the Amero.
But nobody listens...until now...when mainstream media finally touches upon it!!! tinfoil hatters were right!
people had better start converting savings into gold or real estate or face a worthless savings account!!!
No doubt, govt is way past its credit limit and is now getting the Fed to just print the shit when they need more...more....more....more....
Our dollar is intentionally being run into the ground (tanked)!
The Amero is next and it will be brought to us by the "world bank". which is comprised of .... mostly the fed. ...in other words, same as the old...fiat currency
We are doomed to third world nationhood unless we grab hold of the reigns (the constitution) and maintain American soverinity
14-Mudshark---it'll be much worse then 1929, because in those days people were pretty self-reliant and didn't live opulent lives, expectations were a lot lower and people shared the sacrifice, and there were a lot fewer of us...
This next one is gonna be scary...
Why does ANYONE vote for repiglicans? Not being cognizant our own national history is going to hurt us badly.
This should really going to endear the repiglican party to the business sector - and all I can say to them is - you people fucking asked for it - so sit back and enjoy it
*
Trittydi @ 29:
No no no!!! It'll be okay!!! God will protect them and this country because God talks to Bush and tells him what to do! It'll all be fine!
Trittydi @ 29:
Repuglicants have nothing to do with it
If you had said neo cons (I wouldnt have to write this)
If this country takes a hit economically...the whole world will feel it....
A friend of mine came back from the states a few weeks ago
and he told me that with the euro/dollar exchange rate being
so high it felt like being in Eastern Europe during the late 90's.
OK serious question here. I am getting a very large lump sum from my ex soon. I have to invest it or pay taxes on it right away. This money will be for my retirement. Will I be screwed if I invest? Is it possible that I could lose it all if the economy crashes? How safe will my money be?
It probably won't be an abrupt event, but rather a slow unravaling of a culture living beyond its means cushioned by credit cards. The loans that are now affecting the financial markets were not issued all at once, but over an extended period in which riskier loans increased towards the end. It won't being a bursting bubble, rather a deflating one. It's not just the subprime loans that are problematic as the value of residential real estate declines. For example anyone using the increase in value of their real estate as collateral for loans might be "upside down" - real estate talk for someone whose mortgage in higher than the value of the real estate.
Once again the staunch laissez faire capitatist will be supplicating the Fed for relief. A perverted socialism at best for the champions of the free market.
Janet @ 34:
buy real estate or gold and dont pay your taxes.
We're going to be spending the 21st century trying to solve the problems we created in the 20th century.
Are we heading towards a 1929-like economic crash?
Of course, but that doesn't stop the mania.
You guys don't have any idea how bad it really is. I do consumer bankruptcy, and I dumped 100 pieces of real estate into the economy last week alone from people who have given up. And last week wasn't unusual. I am booked tight for weeks in advance with destitute people losing everything they own. This is really the abyss we are staring into. It's a great time for bankruptcy lawyers, I guess, but the upcoming bloodshed is so unbelievably bad that I can't even enjoy my job these days.
What I noticed was the number 1.7 Trillion Dollars ... and the word 'Unregulated'.
I guess we can trust the market.
------
"Greed is good. Greed is right. Greed Works."
"We make the rules, pal. The news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the price of a paper clip. We pick that rabbit out of a hat while everybody sits around wondering how the hell we did it. Now you're not naïve enough to think that we're living in a democracy, are you, Buddy? It's the free market, and you're part of it."
-- Gordon Gecko from 'Wall Street'
Janet @ 34:
We're in uncharted territory now.
Check out First Affirmative Financial Network while your shopping around. (We've never lost money.)
http://www.firstaffirmative.com/
milquetoast @ 31:
Absolutely agree with you. It has nothing to do with left/right; Repubs/Dems, etc. It is all about the destruction of America and you can see it all the old PNAC docs, etc.
Janet @ 34:
I don't know what to tell you..other than if it was me....I'd cash that check and put that money somewhere it will be safe..away from banks and the market....I wouldn't even put it in an offshore account....when times get tough..cash is king..if it's worth anything........I think about gold.And don't tell a soul you have it.NO ONE!
EJ @ 42:
Yup, I could rattle off a few neo-con democrats (besides the obvious Joe Lieberman)
L.A. Confidential
Thanks. I'll check it out. I've been making the rounds but find my trust level at an all time low.
Barbara @ 39:
Damn......what part of the country ?
the oligarchs that looted the economy will be protected by blackwater types.
L.A. Confidential @ 41:
I wouldnt, Janet
If boosh starts a war with Iran..it will help float this economy.....whats that tell ya.
milquetoast @ 48:
Mind your own business.
milquetoast @ 31:
republicans are pure shit!
the g.o.p de-regulated industries, used deficit spending in order to derail domestic spending, borrowed money to fight an unnecessary war, and destroyed consumer confidence with implausible fairy tales. i place 80% of the blame on them.
milquetoast @ 36:
Good advise for someone wanting to commit economic suicide.
Janet @ 45:
as well it should be..at an all time low
mudshark @ 54:
As for real estate read Barbaras post at #39.....that ain't gonna change anytime soon.
mudshark @ 54:
Future Not Bright for ‘Useless Eaters’
...Yea, probably.... Worse than 29??? Who the can say... This is all pretty uncharted (by modern standards) territory for this economy and world situation... The cynic in me informs me that the only thing I can count on once it comes down is hassles... Major major hassles in everything that requires money...Which is pretty much everything now days... So yea, if it happens, we're all pretty well fucked... And yea, I blame those so-called fiscally prudent republicans.. IN fact history informs us it's always been the repubs at the controls when things really spin out of control.. Sort of begs the question of how exactly did they get that fiscally responsible label... They may be many things, but fiscally responsible??? Pa-leeeze...History has put the lie to that b.s....
Good luck to all the gold buyers... OF course if everything tanks totally worldwide, not sure what you folks will spend that gold on if there's really nothing to buy.... Guess you folks will have to figure out how to throw those ingots on the barbie for broiling... Still not sure it will be edible though no matter how long you cook it.... I appreciate that people want to put their investments into Gold due to the historical record... Just not sure any of the old theories and strategies are gonna work this time.. That's how badly I think Bush and his kind have screwed this situation up now...
One thing that annoys me about all this besides, (it didn't have to happen this way as wagonjak @26 informs, I agree with his entire post really), is the irony of all the peons in this society who was/have been trying to scream 'danger Will Robinson, danger' on all this potential tanking economy thing and being shouted down as incompetent or uninformed or just ignorant party poopers who just don't understand the modern economy blah blah fucking blah..... And now, all of the sudden all the so-called econ experts are singing the same tune of we're gonna go over the cliff if we don't change ...something....
Why did it take this long for the big shots to figure it out if someone like even me could foresee this sort of trainwreck long before we got to this sorry state.... Goddamit I'm thinking these fuckers knew this is where it would all end up and just let it happen anyway... I'm fucking getting sick and tired of feeling like this whole frikin society is nothing but a rigged card game with very few wealthy winners and a hell of a lot of decent people played for suckers!!!! Ya know I ain't advocatin violence since that ain't allowed but I'm telling you this is the kind of shit that will get people killed, even hi rollers who think they're safe.... It's all some way bad ju ju and we're all gonna pay for it whether we deserve to or not... Should Chimpy and his social set get off scott free??? You'll have to decide that one for yourself folks.. I know what I think about this subject and him... Pretty much another reason to give him a one way ticket to the HAGUE!!! JD
mudshark @ 55:
Anyone investing in Real Estate as a liquid investment instrument right now either is a billionaire who can afford to speculate and lose money, or an idiot.
is anyone else having trouble playing the wmv files?
Janet....pay the taxes...buy a floor safe...and incase your floor safe in concrete(so no one can carry it off)spread the money out over three or four accounts and start making withdrawls....and either buy gold or keep cash(preferably both)..and put it in your safe........if you buy real estate....buy a farm out in the boonies...it could come in handy.
mudshark @ 49:
Which will inflame the terrorist to attack us more which give the reich wing the excuse they need to kill our constitution and undermine our civil rights under the guise of "protecting" us from the terrorist they inflame and the circle is complete. The rich stay rich with oil wars to enrich their coffers, the poor and middle class foot the war bil,l and the fascists reich wingers reach their goal of undermining American civil liberties and the constitution. A win/win for the Rethuglicans.
L.A. Confidential @ 56:
I have my ass covered....how about you?Useless eaters????really...I thought more of you.
DiggyG @ 59:
I don't know what worm flies are but I'm sure I don't won't to play with them......or wmv files!....nevermind.
mudshark @ 60:
and for gods sake buy a gun , youll need it!
Ruthless People @ 61:
well yeah.That's why they want it.
tr @ 52:
Just started reading John Dean's 'Broken Government' and it's the difference between governing and ruling.
The reason they can do what you've stated is because they can -- they don't give a shit about anyone but themselves.
mudshark @ 60:
Cash isn't going to be worth Jack Squat if the dollar tanks. And as far as Gold, what happens when you invest in Gold for $759, and it crashes back to $450 an ounce, or you go to the store post crash to discover a sack of grocery's costs $759?
buy photo voltaic panels, canned foods, vegetable seeds, plant a victory garden, find secure shelter. good guns increase in value over time and might be helpful if it gets to dog eat dog. doesn't sound anything like the american dream does it.
mudshark @ 62:
We're doing fine. But we're still considered useless eaters to the "elites".
Best strategy right now is to learn to live simply, stay cool, and don't panic.
L.A. Confidential @ 53:
Yes, Now is not the time for real estate(about a year from now it will be a bargain though) as for gold...its better than what you got (spammer)
as for taxes....stop feeding the federal pig (gone bezerk)
I dont pay income tax anymore cuz its blood on my hands.
and yes....it suicide....but at least I can sleep at night knowing my money isnt supporting the military industrial complex ....and the killing that goes with it!
I am not an economist. But reading between the lines in the NYT all these years, the general sense I've gotten is that many, if not most, of the safeguards enacted in the aftermath of the Great Depression have been systematically undermined by the GOP, beginning with Reagan (of course!), with the complicity of the financial markets.
In a nutshell: yeah. Maybe not quite as bad as the Great Depression, but a major economic meltdown is overdue, especially given Shrubbie's (uniformly bad) policies.
tyree @ 64:
I'm not a fan of guns....but I think tyree is right.
L.A. Confidential @ 67:
I think we're going a little over board with this.......Prudence....practice prudence....and yes cash would theoretically be worthless...but gold wouldn't.Theres no reason for us to turn on each other.Janet simply asked for some opinions......me....I'm covered....if I can get there.
L.A. Confidential @ 50:
spammer
Hmmm . . . what is going to hold it's value when the looting starts?
1. Guns/Ammo
2. Food
3. Alcohol
4. Fuel
5. Drugs
Make sure you have plenty of item 1 if you intend to hold on to items 2 through 5.
If I came into a large sum of money I certainly wouldn't put it in the market...or real estate..not for awhile anyway...me..I'd pay the taxes and take the rest and sit on it..in a number of ways..If I bought real estate it wouldn't be in this country.
milquetoast @ 74:
What do you know about investing. Besides nothing?
gold can be mined for about $250 an ounce. don't buy gold, buy stock in gold mining companies.
rahm_emanuel_is_a_tool @ 75:
if this happens .....man.....it could get very,very ugly...looting would sure happen fast.
Janet:: Don't trust the banks, even money market funds may be hit by the hedge fund bust. Maybe a local credit union but make sure their not heavy in any kind of bonds!! The SEC who's suppossed to protect investors just sits on its hands!! Chris Cox is just another right wing lackey!!
Lindy
L.A. Confidential @ 77:
Have a good eye for the future, buy low, sell high...
You may well have some good portfolio options...
perhaps (the portfolio)you offer Janet has stocks such as Halliburton, Lockheed, Blackwater, Raytheon ect....ect...
Got one of those portfolios? How about some stock in Exxon Mobil?
am I spamming?
Jack Damage @ 57:
yep.well said.
milquetoast @ 81: