Subprime Lending - Follow The Money
By bluegal Thursday Nov 08, 2007 1:02pm
Bloomberg News via International Herald Tribune (h/t to the Europe-touring Mike)
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says that the United States is examining the subprime mortgage crisis to ensure that "yesterday's excesses" are not repeated. He could be talking about himself and his former firm, Goldman Sachs.
Paulson does not mention that Goldman still has on the market an estimated $13 billion of almost $37 billion in bonds backed by subprime loans or second mortgages that it created while he was its chief executive.


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Conflict of interest?
Do you want fries with that?
Not to worry.
New Republican bills are coming that will grant retroactive immunity to brokerages and banks involved in SubprimeGate.
[Deleted. Don't post in all caps]
You just have to love a controlled media in this country. If you think for a moment that the sub-prime mess is what this is all about, guess again. Come November 15th, banking laws are going to change in which banks are going to have to change the way they report "everything" that is not only on their books, but the mountains of derivatives that they hold off their books that the public never has had a chnace to see. When that information comes out later next week, the markets are going into a major swan dive.
The warning has already gone out and the first to report it was Dr. Nourial Roubini the chair at the Stern School of economics at NYU in New York. This is just as taste of what is to come. So if you ever wondered how you get your news and why it is spoon fed to you over a period of time, from the governments perspective it could mean the difference between a very hard landing and a soft one. At this point, no matter how the news is metered out, things are not going to end well.
You can check out roubini's site here for confirmation.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
You heard it first here on Monday but what was until last week an obscure and arcane corner of accounting and asset valuations (level 1, 2, 3 securities, the new FASB 157 regulation) is now a front page issue on the mainstream press and across Wall Street.
Suddenly markets and investors are discovering that many financial institutions were parking a large fraction of their asset in the level 3 bucket where they avoid using market prices to evaluate such assets but rather rely on “model valuations” and “unobservable inputs”. But now the forthcoming FASB 157 regulation will prevent them (unless heavy political lobby leads to a postponement of its implementation on November 15th) from playing such accounting tricks and force them to use market prices – when available even in illiquid market conditions – to price these assets.
And guess what now? New reliable estimates suggest that using these market prices – rather than level 3 model gimmicks - will lead to losses of another $100 billion on top of hundreds of billions of subprime losses. And some market participants are already talking – quite realistically – about total losses from this credit disaster in the $500 billion range.
Add that to the fact we can barely pay the interest on the U.S. debt and you have a perfect storm brewing.
Should be interesting times ahead.
It's basically the same set up that lead to the Great Depression.
well, double standards are twice as good :-)
L.A. Confidential @ 7:
That is exactly where it is going and given the manipulted news in our country, we were supposed to be the last know!
Andrew @ 8:
People are clueless. And when it happens most people will just figure, well this is just the way tings are and there's nuttin we can do about it. Maybe the gubberment can do someting'.
L.A. Confidential @ 7:
We can only hope, right LA-C?
If I don't post here any more it's because I jumped out a window. I need to find my replacement first.
Dennis @ 10:
If we cling to the old school paradigm we'll be in serious trouble. If we snap out of it and bring in the new we'll make it.
It's that simple. Capitalism as we know it is in a late stage of Decay.
I'm sick of Sachs cronies like Paulson and Josh Bolten destroying our country
Well the good news is Stan O'Steal from Merrill Lynch is out...oh yeah...with 160 million. And (up)Chuck Prince is out at Shittigroup...oh yeah...he gets 100 mill...ever notice the boys at the top have it set up nice? if the company does great, I win big. If the company bleeds billions, I win big. Nice.
I know this is a fundamental question, but what is a dollar? How is its value determined? What prevents the Fed from printing more and more of it, if it is not backed by commodity? Can anyone explain the following scenario?
Ideal:
1.lender(bank) < ---commodity(collateral) debtor
2.Lender---(loan /IOU/paper currency)--> debtor
3. Lender<---(loan /IOU/paper currency)-- debtor
4.lender--commodity(return collateral) --> debtor
*5. lender destroys paper currency/IOU
Actual :
1.lender<--commodity (collateral) -- debtor
2.Lender---(loan /IOU/paper currency)--> debtor
*3. Lender !=(loan /IOU/paper currency) debtor defaults
*4.lender needs money
*5. Lender prints currency
*6. paper currency does not come back to lender
Follow the Currency...
Fiat Empire
Aaron Russo's Last Film
Henry Paulson is going to make sure the 'excesses' of yesterday don't up and get us again...Like what? HIS and his kinds excesses maybe?... Whatever... What's the point in rantin about this shit.. Looks like just another fox put in charge of another henhouse to me.... To borrow and paraphrase an old Don Henley song... when dirt 'are' dollars, we'll all be in the black... PFFT! JD
Shouldn't capitalism mean that these companies should lose money and perhaps go out of business? Shouldn't the CEO's at these companies get lose their bonuses? Get big pay cuts? Who thinks that will happen?
This is "capitalism" to "conservatives" these days: Businesses do whatever, and if they get in trouble, the "conservative" Republicans will bail them out. It's the invisible hand... of Republicans!
So Paulson does not want us to penalize banks for engaging in a downward spiral of speculative ventures?
Is this not like penalizing telecoms for illegally helping the government to spy on its citizens?
What about overseeing what the banks were doing? Oh, the free market will fix things; either that, or Bernake said that the government should bail out the crisis.
Free market = free from risk for the people who get the big bucks.
CounterSicilian @ 13:
You can thank a great Republican called Richard Nixon who in 1971 broke the link between real money ( Gold ) and the worthless paper dollar ( Federal Reserve note ) Today it is just fiat. The floating concept of currency is a failure because there is nothing of value to back it.
The only saving grace is to return to what the Constitution and the founding fathers called for, which was a US Treasury and money established from gold and silver. It would be as simple as the stroke of a pen in overturning the Federal Reserve Act and going back to Consitutional money. That means a sound money backed by precious metals like gold and silver, doing away with the Federal Reserve as well as the I.R.S. as there is nothing in the Constitution that says that ones personal labor is to be taxed.
But as long that you have a banking cartel that controls money, you can never get ahead and will always be in debt just as the government is. The only difference being, that theu own the printing presses and when they want more they just print it. Wish I had a printing press. Why is it we allow our government to debase our currency by printing more and more of it? Is it any wonder why they stopped printing the M3 figure. As Ron Paul said at yesterdays hearing with Bernanke, we are printing 20% more money year over year than at any time in history. In fact, when Greenspan was in charge, he printed more worthless money in his time that since the creation of our country. Now you know the dirty little secret our elected officials never wanted you to know and sure sure won't hear the media talking about it. They jsut think we're simple morons.
"It’s that simple. Capitalism as we know it is in a late stage of Decay."
No its not. This is ridiculous.
The problem here is corruption and fraud, pure and simple. Bad lending practices. Debt spending of irrational proportions. You keep to fiscal conservatism, and every thing would be fine. This would mean...no bs sub primes. Ballanced federal budget. Economies go in cycles, and we are due for a downturn, but its going to be worse because of BUSH and his failed policies, and over exuberance in the mortgage business, not because of capitalism.
Realistically, at this point capitalism in a global economy has been proven to be the best system available for raising standard of living. Are there problems? Yes. We do need to deal with the very real problem of income equallity, but this doesnt mean we go away from capitalism. We do need to restrain corruption and fraud, but this has ALWAYS been the case, and it applies to EVERY SYSTEM equally.
One other question you might like to ask your elected representatives. If the Federal Reserve a private banking cartel has all this power over the money in our country, why was the law written in such a way that the books of the Federal Reserve could never be audited?
Why was Paulson arrested in Germany in dec. of 2006. Why was the Provost Marshal General and Paulson at the Citicorp meeting over the weekend of Nov. 1st 2007. Because Bush 1 and 2 and the Clintons have been stealing 27.5 trillion dollars from the Leo Wanta settlement, this has been going on since 1988. What a bunch of greedy a-holes we have had running the country. It is time for guns and roses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Remember that the Bush administration utilized the refinancing boom to keep the economy afloat over the last 5 years. Consumers would tapped into the equity of their homes to buy goods and services and prop up the GDP.
Business and mortagage companies benefited greatly during this time taking their share from the debt bubble. Now that this bubble is bursting, capitalist only worry about bailing our companies.
When are americans going to learn.
The plan was laid out before Bush stole the Oval Office. Yes big business set out to rip off Americans and Paulson was in on the plan. But then the little crooks found out the plan and they set up shop to get as much as they could while the criminals were in charge. Many more criminal acts have taken place other the sub prime. When Bush/Cheney took office it was like letting millions of roaches out to run free to steal. The Law Makers got their share of the free money too. As we see Republican Law Makers resigning or not running for re-election it's because they got their share and put the money in off shore accounts just in case their names come out. Yes Rudy and Mitt want to continue the path of crime as set by the Bush/Cheney team. Rudy wants Cheney as his VP again. Rudy will not allow his criminal friend Bernie go to jail and if elected President all the GOP criminal friends will be release. Yes even Fingers Foley can come back to the Senate and continue his child molesting. Vitter will be allowed legally to hire prostitutes and our new Attorney General will make it legal for GOP Law Makers to be perverts, child molesters and hire prostitutes but for the rest of Americans it will be illegal. Minorities will be sent to the Military and to the fields are the US gets rid of immigrants. Yes we will see our crops picked by those who did it best from the beginning. Our Military will see a White Master and the soldiers will be our minorities to die for our freedom. Mitt's sons will be safe and never have to serve in the US Military. The US can get back to the basics on how this country became great on the backs of slaves.
BIGS @ 21:
You nailed it buddy! A friend of mine works at CITI and couldn't believe all those black SUV's with little red lights flashing on them this week. The Wnta story is about the biggest financial scam in history and while the media and every elected official knows about it, they still won't publish a word about it. But if your interested, you can read all of the gory details at www.worldreports.org. Christopher Story should win a Pulitzer prize for the time and effort he has put into this factual story. Make no mistake, this government and previous administrations are as corrupt as any that have ever existed, and we the people are the ones who have and continue to pay the price for this financial rape of the United States.
The next time a politician tells you we don't have the money for this program or that, ask them about the 4.5 trillion that ambassador Wanta want to pay his rightful 1.575 trillion in taxes on. I'll bet that politician will first puke, then run off as fast as his feet can carry him.
Andrew @ 4:
the mclaughlin group had a brief alarming segment on Sunday about this. C&L posted a video of the exchange. this could be trillions worldwide. many european and asian banks did the same thing.
L.A. Confidential @ 10:
L.A. Confidential @ 8:
both points are salient and accurate. people need to stop accepting the damage that happens in their lives by the acceptance of corrupt leadership.
Rick @ 22:
after all available wealth is transferred into the hands of those living in gated communities protected by blackwater.
JW @ 19:
Any Ideology taken to it's extreme and set in stone without balance and moderation is doomed to fail.. Simple as that..
L.A. Confidential @ 10:
I don't think the problem is capitalism in its purest form, but the greed and corruption of our corporate executives. It is enhanced when you have an under-regulated and under-staffed federal government that chooses to ignore much of what is going on. Of course, most of our government officials come from the same corporate cesspool, so why should we expect fair play. The game favors the "big guys" - access to politicians and the clout to get laws that favor them over the little guy, multi-million dollar annual compensation, insider stock trading, multi-million dollar retirement packages even if they are fired, tax loopholes that lower their effective rate below the middle class, little transparency, accounting games, a hand-picked Board of Directors, etc.
Paulson is just one of them!
+++++GENERAL MOTORS+++++
The shining face of corporate capitalissimo. Here's a message from our glorious Chairman.
Dear Fellow Shareholders:
Being the captain of the Titanic is no fun.
I am the CEO and the chairman of General Motors, what was, until recently, one of the largest and most powerful corporations in the world. For decades, GM was a model of capitalism. Our bonds were the highest quality you could purchase. Our dividend was the safest. Our jobs were among the best in America. Our operations shaped accounting standards. What was good for GM was said to be "good for America."
Today, only a thin veneer of optimistic statements, crafted by my lawyers so that they can't be definitely called "lies," keeps this firm from slipping into bankruptcy.
For example, I told the world in our press release we saw "steady improvement in our financial results" and "strong evidence that our commitment to great cars and trucks is being embraced by consumers around the globe." Luckily for me, "steady improvement" and "strong evidence" are meaningless puffery that can't be proven to mean one thing or another.
Instead of living the life of a captain of industry – where I'd take credit for the hard work of our thousands of employees – I find myself leading an expansive game of financial charades. I have become nothing more than a dressed-up street hustler, running a shell game on you, our loyal shareholders. But at least I have this outlet. As I have done for nearly a year, I will again tell you the sad truth about our operations and our helpless financial situation.
First, as I have told you before, "We have infrastructure and employee obligations that outpace what we can afford given our greatly reduced profit margins and debt load." Specifically, we have long-term debts of $36 billion, retirement benefit obligations of $60 billion, and another $16 billion in various other long-term liabilities.
How did we end up in this position? It didn't happen overnight. For 19 out of the last 20 years, GM operated at a capital deficit. We simply didn't make enough money selling cars to maintain our asset base, make new investments in future capacity, and pay our cash dividend. If you look at the numbers carefully, you see our total capital deficit over the last 20 years was $275 billion. After we worked through our accumulated savings, we began borrowing money – more and more of it every year.
So far this year, we've paid approximately $4 billion in interest on these various liabilities. I estimated, in an earlier letter to you, that we would require about $5.81 billion in cash from operations merely to pay the interest on our debts. I still believe that's an accurate forecast. Our global cost of borrowing continues to increase, as I thought it would. It now costs us 6.3% a year, on average, to borrow money, up from 5.84% last year. As more debts "roll over," this number will increase until it eventually strangles us. We are trapped, unable to let go of our legacy obligations and unable to pay for them.
We know we will not produce anything like $6 billion from operations this year. Likewise, it is very unlikely we will ever generate regular, ongoing profits from operations in excess of our interest expenses. As a result, our accountants have forced us to "write down" the value of most of our tax losses, which had been on our books as an asset. We've told the public this doesn't really matter because the $37 billion charge is a "noncash" expense.
It does matter though: It means we know we are unlikely to ever again record a profit. If we had any reasonable expectation of reaching profitability, we would not have been required to take the write-off. (You won't hear me explain this fact anywhere else...)
Our core problem is simple enough to understand: We can't make enough money selling cars to pay for our debts, or even our interest payments.
This quarter, on a worldwide basis, we earned $122 million from our ongoing automotive operations, which we claim is a terrific accomplishment. In fact, we make a pitifully small amount of money from selling cars – even in the huge global boom we're now experiencing. You should remember: Our third-quarter revenues have never been bigger. Our rival, Toyota, which sells essentially the same number of vehicles, posted operating earnings of $11.2 billion! That's a record for Toyota and a 16% increase over last year. Investors ought to be seriously concerned about the future of the company when, even in a quarter of record global car sales, GM can't turn a profit.
Things are especially tough on us in the developed markets. We lost $248 million on our North American operations and another $90 million in Europe. This doesn’t include all of the corporate overhead, legacy costs, and most of our interest expense.
In total, we lost $2.5 billion – in cash – on our automotive operations in the quarter.
As I've explained before, our only chance to avoid bankruptcy was to experience a big jump in the total number of cars sold and to cut expenses to the bone. That hasn't happened. Our total worldwide car production has actually fallen year over year. Likewise, our global market share continues to slip, bit by bit. In 1992, we made 30% of all the cars in the world. Today, we make 13.3% of all the cars in the world, down from 13.6% last year.
As our production falls, the scale of our business shrinks, making it harder and harder to earn a profit on every car sold. Production is very likely to continue to decline. Even after all of the plant closures and cutbacks, we are still operating below 90% of our current capacity.
I know... all of this seems like bad news. But actually, our automotive business is only slowly bleeding to death. The big hemorrhage is in mortgages...
Our CFO was foolish enough to tell securities analysts that GMAC was "leaning away" from residential mortgages. Not exactly... Actually, GMAC lost $1.6 billion, mostly on subprime mortgages, in the last quarter. Our share of these losses totaled $803 million. We actually don't know how much more we will lose in this business going forward, but as our write-off of those tax assets shows, we certainly don't expect to make any money here for a long time.
What does all of this mean? It's not good news. Let me show you the cold, hard facts.
According to our most up-to-date balance sheet, we have about $37 billion in cash and receivables. That sounds like a lot of money. But we have matching liabilities for all of these assets – and more. Over the next 12 months, $5 billion of our long-term debt will come due. We have current accounts payable of $30 billion and other accrued expenses that mature in the next year of $34 billion. All totaled, we owe $70 billion within the next 12 months. (That's not including all of the rest of our long-term debt, pension liabilities, etc.)
If you have $34 billion in your checking account and you've got $70 billion worth of bills on your desk, you're not exactly "cash rich" are you?
How will we pay for these obligations? How will we come up with the money we need to finance our long-term debts? There aren't any easy answers. And all of the possible solutions will be extremely painful to existing shareholders.
The simple fact is, we're going bankrupt. It's only a matter of time before our accountants force us to insert "going concern" language into our filings. That means they won't approve our audit unless we admit publicly that we know we're heading for a bankruptcy filing.
That won't be a good day to be a shareholder.
Best regards,
Your Chairman
Bernake wants to raise the limits for a "conforming" mortgage (currently $475,000) to $1M or more and then sell insurance to Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. Like all the banking system it is complicated, but my take on it is that essentially the taxpayers are going to be stuck with the hugly overpriced houses in California that speculators were buying to "flip."
There are several facets to this problem, but basically like all problems it comes from greed and stupidity.
First, the banks were getting around the very rational requirement that the borrower pay %10 or %20 of the mortgage with their own money by making "piggyback loans." When I bought a house, I had to certify that none of my down payment was a loan. It confounds me that the banks would sidestep this simple and effective protection. Until recently I thought that there wouldn't be a huge problem unless house prices dropped more than %30 or more -- yeah, the bank loses money but not that much.
Second, we have a gigantic accounting fraud as the other posters mentioned -- and the government is being complicit in creating another one. This isn't just the normal sort of ranting that a statement like that usually indicates. They invented a complex instrument called an "SIV" that they helpfully explain is "like a bank." What it really amounts to is a way for the banks to make bad loans, sell them to themselves (under another name) and take the loans off of the books. Enron did this and the CFO went to jail. Bernake is helping to negotiate a "super SIV" that will buy the bad assets from the banks -- using the bank's own money! In any other universe this would be a simple fraud. The really scary thing is that we have no idea what the bank's true exposure to these funds is.
Additionally, Wall Street invented complex bond-like-things for subprime loans that were carefully designed to defeat the ratings of the bond rating companies. Just like a Chinese manufacturer, they mixed high quality assets with pure junk and sold the resulting brew as a high quality asset. If you want to be scared as hell, realize that the money funds bought some of this stuff. Wait until your money funds "break the buck" if you want to see what a real panic looks like.
Generally we keep getting sold the idea that asset prices only go up. Folks, it doesn't matter how good or solid the asset is; it can be overpriced. This is true of stocks, houses, interest rates, salaries, or anything. Past performance does not indicate future returns. With rapid asset appreciation, you know that prices will overshoot the true value. A lot of oil traders are going to lose a bunch of money in the not-so-distant future; even though oil is getting scarcer.
ok people...the "Wanta" thing sounds like pure conspiracy theory nuttiness to me.
Can anyone else qualify this somehow?
Thanks
Get rid of the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve banking as soon as possible!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936
http://www.themoneymasters.com/faqs.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Money_Masters
Josh @ 32:
That's the problem Josh. The major media outlets have been bought off and their silence is deafening. If you go to Story's site www.worldreports.org, check through his archives going back to the original agreement hammered out between Wanta and the current administration. A friend of mine in banking who didn't believe the story and thought it was some conspiracy nut job talking went as far as requesting a copy of the 2003 trial in Federal Court in Alexandria VA. under the rule of Justice Gerald B. Lee.
Judge Lee made it clear to Wanta that you can't sue a soverign nation ie: your emplyer in this case and Wanta knew that. However, Wanta had proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the money was real sitting in title 18 section 6 account's that Wanta had the transaction codes for. The judge stated in his Memorandum of Opinion, that while you can't sue the U.S. gov't, you have proven yourself to be the rightful owner of the funds which at the time was 27.5 Trillion accumulated over 22 years and that he was ordered by the court to bring those funds into the US and pay his corporate taxes which Wanta has been trying to do since November 2006.
I have read all 174 pages of the court case and if you have access to Lexus/Nexus, you can read it for yourself. All members of Congress are very aware of it and the Clinton and Bush Administrations have been trying to keep this from the public for the last ten years. This is the case number if your interested.
U.S. JUDGE LEE’S COURT RULING OVER AMBASSADOR LEO WANTA’S ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY IN RESPECT OF CERTAIN SENSITIVE TITLE 18, SECTION 6 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT INTELLIGENCE CORPORATIONS AND THEIR OFF-BALANCE SHEET OFFSHORE BANK ACCOUNT FINANCIAL ASSETS
CV 02-1363-A,
CounterSicilian @ 14:
These days, it's all just a bunch of numbers flying around in computers. The rich fight it out amongst themselves. Any questions and Blackwater visits your house. Know what I'm sayin'? Back to work-- peon. Know what I'm sayin'?
(see also--35 Edwin Says: )
That, and, I think oil has replaced what gold used to be. I'm no economist, but I hear ya, it all stinks.
Philosophically: What is money? It's an agreement, nothing more.
Edwin @ 35:
That's what the government would like you to think. It doesn't have to be that way. WE THE PEOPLE are the real power in America. It's not the other way around. As I have stated here before, remember this quote from Jefferson. " When the people fear the government, there is tyranny". " When the government fears the people, there is liberty".
We are headed into the worst bear market since the 2000 meltdown. I am expecting a Black Monday on the 12th. Hold on to your butts!
Maybe he just forgets, lol
Disaster after disaster after disaster and there are STILL plenty of average Americans, the ones most hurt by this stuff, who support deregulation and self-policing of corporate swindlers. It's lunacy.
CoInTeLpRo @ 28:
They forget that Blackwater ain't free! Worthless money is worthless to everyone, not just the poor.
americans workers are corporate livestock in todays world.
tr @ 43:
Its not just American workers, my friend - it is workers all around the globe. I am no economics guru, but I understand that money was never meant to exist without commodity. If it does, it is counterfeit, no matter who prints it.
Andrew @ 38:
it really has become disney land hasnt it!
[Deleted-Sitemonitor]
Yes of course. People need to be protected from their own stupidity. They took a huge gamble and lost. The only ones who will get bailed out are the lenders themselves. But there is hope. Maybe people will realize that maybe, just maybe they really don't need 2 fat SUV's, an Ipod and a daily $2.00 cup of coffee.
If you are going to attempt to 'Follow The Money' in this latest mortgage scam, you'd better put on SCUBA gear, and be prepared to squeeze down a toilet and a lot of sewer pipes.
With nothing backing the dollar, The federal reserve(which is really 5 major players) will ultimately crash the economy and the dollars you have save will be as worthless as the members in congress who represent us.
Of coarse yesterdays excesses will not be repeated. They have already occured. The damage has already been done.
Greenspan did not want sub prime regulated, so that what occured, could hapen.
It was Greenspan, who told home buyers to get adjustable rate mortgages, at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. It was Greenspan who was praising reckless lending programs in 2005.
The damage is done and Greenspan is now gone. Someone else is now left to clean up the mess.
Greenspan is now blaming the housing bubble on the fall of the Berlin Wall, instead of his 1% interest rates and his refusal to regulate banking, while praising reckless lending programs.
Now, the regulating, which Greenspan said would be futile for him to attempt, is occuring. It was doable, Greenspan simply did not want to do it. It did not fit in his agenda, which was to create a housing bubble, to replace a stock bubble.
Ron.j @ 50:
Is this the same Greenspan, who was one of the founders of the Trilateral Commission?
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