Houston, we have a problem...
By Nicole Belle Sunday Nov 11, 2007 4:01pmBonddad says the financial picture looks terrible:
The bottom line is the technical picture is terrible at best.
1.) We had three days of negative trading ending in a high-volume sell-off,
2.) The SPYs are below their 200 day SMA,
3.) The QQQQs broke their uptrend,
4.) Breadth is negative across the board, and
5.) The market's fewer and fewer strong stocks all took hits last week that broke their uptrends.
6.) There is also the further complication of the CDO/mortgage issue. It's quite possible that before the week is over we'll see more write-down of mortgage portfolios.On top of that, there is little technical reason for the markets to rally, except, "the markets have sold off so we should nibble at some shares," or in practical parlance, "the technical bounce".
This is not the week to go long on anything. In addition, I would not be surprised to see a further sell-off.
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dollar up
oil down
bush from the get-go
as president i can not fuck up the entire nation just like i did texas
bush has taken us from prosperity to a pending depression.
fuck bush and the entire bush family, and let's not forget the bastard cheney!
FINANCIAL EXPERTS: ‘SUB-PRIME’ PRESIDENT THREATENS ENTIRE PLANET
I have no idea what a lot of those points mean but I do know that the market was down again today. Surly not as bad as last week but it was still down.
I imagine the fed will lower the interest rates again and that might cool things off for a little while.
In my neighborhood alone there are empty houses for sale on every street. There are brand new houses with a for sale sign and a for rent sign both in the front yard. Because there are so many houses for rent the rental rates are dropping and the neighborhood has become very transient. People move in, stay a month or so and then find another rental house even cheaper, so they move on. Things are changing and none of it is good.
This will keep collapsing until a week or two before Xmas, when the bottom will fall out.
Have a Merry One.
Who would have thought that a life long failure would make such a crappy president, eh?
He is king Midas in reverse; everything he touches turns to shit.
Unfortunately there are plenty of morons in this country that think that trail he leaves behind him is actually very, very, dark gold.
Meanwhile bush tells us we have a strong dollar. Do you think he ever bothers to read or see what we see? The dollar is weak as hell and every economist says so. Okay Fox may find some that disagree but they can also find a scientist who says global warming is just a hoax.
Oh, it's worse than that...
Market Crash Imminent: Get Out While You Can
http://seekingalpha.com/article/53863-market-crash-imminent-get-out-whil...
I don't get out every day, but has gas really gone up $0.10 in the last week; $0.20 the week before that??
OMG.
Stagflation Has Already Begun .
Sluggish economic growth coupled with a high rate of inflation and unemployment.
Tanking dollar, over valued stock market, toxic debt securities.
Complete the equation.
...the whole thing is though..is that the wealthy are insulated from a market crash.
Bush has done exactly what he set out to do.
Poor American suckers.
Preacher Boob @ 5:
Them MBAs are not of the intelligent persuasion, are they? If people are defaulting left and right because there is no money for mortgage, what makes them think they will spend anything with no credit for this Christmas? And watch out when the expectation numbers are not me, and these necktie jockeys come out of the woodwork wondering what happened.
These are the idiots who destroyed the industrial base of this country, in order to produce cheap shit overseas. Without stopping to think that people without jobs or low paying mcjobs can not afford that cheap shit.
To make a good business leader requires greed and intelligence in almost equal parts. The idiot business class in this country only managed to get the greed part right...
I don't think bush is smart enough to have done this. I think he has cronies doing what professionals should be doing, once again.
Josh @ 11:
Exactly.
President PNACcio @ 8:
Well, gotta hand it to the GOPers, they set to destroy the New Deal for the best part of the past half century. And if by god if we aren't back right in 1928...
The distance between the clases gets greater everyday. Bush has fucked this nation bigtime. Wait until China goes to Euros and starts moving money from the bond markets. The house of cards is falling, people.
Probably not the best time for bush to whip out his speech about individuals investing in the market to prop up social security.
pissed off patricia @ 13:
Scams R Us
http://www.greatchange.org/ov-martin,case_for_sedition.html
L.A. Confidential @ 14:
Isn't it true that while we think of the photos of bread lines, and the news about people jumping out of windows--wasn't a LOT of money to be made during the Depression? Preying on the weak?
although the rich might be insulated, i would be willing to bet that when the day comes where they are not making money hand over fist they too will begin to question the bush economy. one thing about the ultra wealthy, they want it to keep coming their way, period. and to all the repube talking heads that are trying to make the next election about the economy, well this might make that a hard sell to the haves and have mores, bush's base.
so lets review, the dollar's value inthe world is in the toilet, middle class struggles and the market is scary to those who can play there. the boy king is just like daddy after all.
hadenuf @ 19:
Of course. And WW2 was the thing that got us out of the depression.
What's going to get us out of the next depression?
hadenuf @ 22:
I don't know.
L.A. Confidential @ 23:
My bong used to get me out of depression. But I gave that up...
L.A. Confidential @ 23:
I admire your honesty.
I guess as a species, we've about run out of ideas. I just hope we can remember the good ideas from the past--when we're forced to implement them.
You can't screw around gutting the US economy on a fake war; you can't provide entitlements to the wealthiest individuals and corporations and take from the lower classes to pay for them.
Payday is coming.
Watch out for your 401k's, folks. It's one of the few remaining treasure chests just begging to be looted.
And I suspect the insurance industry will step in to offer insurance for a "secure retirement", once your 401k's are gutted, just like they saved us from our health concerns.
Meanwhile, since the Democrats can't handle impeachment and "everything else" at the same time, do ya think they're busily working on a remedy or two to save the country from becoming nothing but a 3rtd third debtor nation? I doubt it.
Why won't the Dems do anything? A portion of them are Zionist asswipes that will do anything chimpymcflightsuittexasnationguard aks as long as their precious homeland, that they lost 2000 YEARS AGO, is given military aid so they can continue to expand their borders. The rest of the Dems are being blackmailed by Bushco.. You really don't think domestic wiretapping is about terrorists do you? It's about getting dirt on political opponents. This is the same shit Richard Nixon was busted for, while Rummy and Darth were working for the fucker, and Bushco. has continued this strategy. There is simply no other explanation.
There's a theory that the Dems know how bad it will get and figure people will give them the WH and on overwhelming majority in 2008. There are people that hope that if this happens then the Dems will turn everything around. This will not happen. They will continue Bush's failed policies, they will not stop the war, give people healthcare or do anything they promise just as they haven't since taking Congress and the Senate early this year.
The United States is over and we are facing the end to our way of life. There is no hope.
I'm so relieved that no newspapers, newsreaders or cable news talking heads have blamed or even mentioned the Bush-Cheney responsiblity for the nations economy. The administration has to much on it's mind already. What would they say in response anyhow, they'd just keep lying. And the Democratic office holders and consultants......they'll just keep shutting up, obviously a winning tactic.
An Average Joe @ 16:
Actually far more bonds are held by the Euro zone countries than by China alone. China needs the US market, a collapsed US economy does them no good.
The key is whether or not the Euros are willing to put up with the US having all the fun, while they get to pay with inflation on their currency and compromises on their social benefits. Once they get their act together diplomatically, they may no longer be willing to play second fiddle to a paper tiger like the US.
European interests are actually buying US property and business at fire sale prices. I think right now the single largerst owner of US real state is Holland.
Okay here's a very hard question. During the years of the bush administration what good has come to our country? No joking around, but really can you think of one good thing?
"...to save the country from becoming nothing but a 3rtd third debtor nation?"
That's "3rd world debtor nation".
willie @ 20:
The BoyKing is more like his Nazi symapthizer Grandfather who envisioned a fascist America.
We've got to stop talking about voting officials out, they don't need us, I suggest bullets to the head.
pissed off patricia @ 30:
I mentioned this once before: Bush thinks that there should be more nurses.
I challenge anyone to come up with anything else.
L.A. Confidential @ 21:
Not really, the New Deal made things far better, and by the late 30s Americans were not interesting in fiddling with world affairs now that things were getting back to normal.
WW2 propped the US that the top military and economic super power though. Quite a remarkable turn of events, and all weathered by a cripple president. And some right wing trolls have the balls to put Raygun as the best president of the XX century.
With such level of stupidity allowed to infiltrate our national discourse, we are rotten to the core and maybe we deserve the depression that is coming. I am afraid, that now we really will pay for it and there will not be a second chance... Americans are too dumb to vote for a Rossevelt if there was another one to return. A patient refusing to take its medicine may not be fit to be saved...
Are we as a nation devolved to such a level that stupidity, greed and suicidal tendencies are portrayed as gifts and not as vices?
Dr. Who @ 29:
That might not be so bad--lots of tulips!
War!
I wouldn't panic because the market is down; it goes up and down a lot and is still above where it was at the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, the ISM reports that inventories are growing rapidly which indicates a strong slowdown in buying. Not too surprising with $4.00 gas (where I live) and people losing their homes. I am also quite worried about the bank's exposure to mortgage risk -- I wondered what fools were buying the toxic securities and it turned out that the banks themselves were! There is a great explanation in Fortune: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/12/magazines/fortune/eavis_level3.fortune/i...
One part of the whole mess that I now understand is that the banks actually wanted to issue subprime loans because they can charge higher interest for them. It puts a lot into perspective. Just like the credit card companies want you to miss a payment so they can charge high fees, the banks want marginal customers who have to pay higher interest rates. We have a whole industry based upon preying on the lower middle of our population. People with money are not that attractive, because they pay the bills on time and can negotiate better interest rates.
The Red Cross is asking for extra generosity this coming holiday season, due to the 'unusually heavy demand for charitable food packages' in the wealthier neighborhoods of the country.
Palm Beach, Beverly Hills, River Oaks, etc., Red Cross offices have all received extraordinarily numerous requests for Xmas turkeys. The question is: Should you donate to provide Red Cross packages of food to these folks?
Or should you just wait until Xmas eve and throw a frozen turkey through the front door of your newest neighbors in the $2M+ McMansion next door? You know, that nice friendly Pakistani taxi driver and his wife, who takes in laundry?
Buy on bad news; sell on good!
H1022 @ 38:
Thats great if you have hundreds of thousands of dollars to loose and to blow.
Larry Kudlow and all Bush's street walkers need to be taken off the airwaves for their Pravdaness
Doom and gloom- never before has it made so many people so happy.
Well, if it is to be, so be it, but here's some sage household economic advice for the day when Democrat
tax increases make everything rosy again:
Don't buy stuff you can't afford.
Let's just have the market crash and get on with it. Just kidding. To be honest, I'm surprised it took this long for the market to catch up with the amazing sets of deficits we have in this country. The Fed sure as hell does a good job shaping perception with their very stupid interest rate cuts.
dennis @ 41:
When it comes to chose between a policy that encourages "tax and spend" or another one that is more along the GOP lines of "borrow and spend." I will go for the tax and spend anytime. Although if you want to go there, I must remind you that the level of public debt is basically an order of magnitude larger than private/personal debt crunches. I don't know if you are well versed in math, but an order of magnitude more means: a shitload bigger. In the parlance of our times.
Although, it is rather telling that when discussing something related to apples: the personal and private credit markets, republicans can only respond with something about oranges: public debt and taxation.
It sort of provides a bit of the actual context about the right wingers... no wonder we are in such a shit hole with such economic "luminaries" at the helm.
The Sea Hawk @ 42:
There is always been a disconnect between the market, which is basically based on thin air and speculation. And the real economy based on production, assets, and actual services.
This disconnect is what makes using the market as the main economic indicator so ridiculous. Because, the gauge you are using to read the state may be fuzzy, or have delayed effects... which is stupid because what you need is to have a real time indicator in order to make sound policy decisions.
Alas, we have our first MBA president, whoohooo!
Dr. Who @ 12:
Good point Doc. Does anyone ,without a decent paying job anymore, really give a rats ass if they can buy a DVD player for 39 bucks ? Worry not, the US media will have all of yous feeling sorry for the Wall Street weasals having to get by on half a million Xmas bonuses this year. Pathetic
Experts agree, the past three days are the worst tanking of the u.s. economy in five years...
guess FBC and faux snooze and the PNAC GOP bush white house admin is going to have to work severe overtime this weekend to spin the stories before the talking heads appear on Sunday morning.
Light, sweet crude = $94.62 per barrel for oil,
$5.00 per gallon gasoline,
value of the dollar plummeting and being converted to ANY other currency (e.g. euro, canadian, etc) to avoid further loss
housing market collapse, subprime loans meltdown, ceo's and stock crashing...
$500 billion in iraq for LIES and OIL
4000 dead us soldiers
1,000,000 plus innocent iraqis needlessly killed
no connection between 9/11 and saddam
no WMDs in Iraq, intel known to be very questionable
Osama bin laden still on the loose
Taliban resurging six years after 9/11
Opium poppy crop production at record output, terrorists and drug dealers reaping benefits
bush and cheney and rove and rice and rummy = miserable failures
HAHA Karl, I laugh at your 'superior intellect'.
go cheney yourself!
The Sea Hawk @ 42:
The average person can't compete with the major short traders. You may as well be tossing people to the lions.
hadenuf @ 22:
The strategic cosolidation of the independant banks into the hands of a few...(the federal reserve) is what got America out of the last depression.
You can be sure that the privately owned and operated "fed" will benefit from this depression as well, after all, they orchestrated it.
More money and power for the Rockefellers and Rothchilds and squat for you.
It's the way your economy is set up.
You poor saps.
L.A. Confidential @ 47:
The average person can't compete in normal trading either. The stock exchange is designed to fleece the sheep (small investor) by the wolves (big time investor). It is like playing poker with a champion, when you enter the casino you have their money in your pocket, you just not know it yet. When you leave the casino empty handed, is when it hits you.
Unless you are very aware of what you are doing, one should stay away of the stock market. Period. It is the biggest pyramidal scheme ever played. Wealth always goes upwards, not downwards. However there is alway a fool an his money born every minute, so it goes....
Yeah, I cashed out my 401(k). I already lost of third of it when Enron/WorldCom scammed the country and got away with it, and I would rather pay the early withdrawal penalty of 20% than watch it sucked down the subprime drain. And, I've already told my family I'm boycotting the consumer holy land of department stores and giving them cash to help with their groceries and heating bills. Way to go Gee Dumbya!! Heck of a job!!!
Dr. Who @ 49:
You got that right.
L.A. Confidential @ 39:
Actually that is better advice than you would be inclined to believe. Proper and effective investing is CONTRARY, to what you would believe it to be with "common sense" (now we've all seen how well that "common sense" works for the wingnuts haven't we?). Think back for example to what the news looked like before the crash of April 2000.
I was actually just last night out looking through the magazine racks for a cover story inciting panic about the fall of the USD.....this would be near perfect validation that the fall is over, or near over (I am still long the Euro) as the magazine covers have a near 100% track record of giving or implying bad advice. Yes, I understand that we still have a year and change of the boy chimperor, but the thing is that markets tend to be efficient (having possibly already DIGESTED the information of the USD being partially divested as a reserve currency, going into recession, having inflation.......), and look forward.
This is why incidently we need to go back to some variant of the good old guaranteed benefit pension plan.......your "typical citizen" isn't equipped to think and act like this as their own portfolio manager.....the "gonna make you rich" 401K is in many cases basically a highly effective conduit for transferring wealth from the middle and lower classes to the upper.
V V
I see that Dr. Who and I are on the same page.
V V
The stock market is a scam. The only really safe place to put your money is in bonds. Oh wait. Really, the safe thing to do is buy real estate. Umm.. no, it is better to keep it in cash.. Well, actually....
Probably the best thing to do with your money right now is to buy a crate and a whole bunch of apples.
The Logic
Exxon Mobil Chief Executive Rex Tillerson said that while he expected supply to catch up with demand in two to three years, the longer term outlook for oil depended on resource-rich nations opening up their countries for investments.
"It is not a resource problem. The world has plenty of oil," Tillerson told reporters at the World Energy Congress in Rome.
Just saw that Smith Barney estimates that E-Trade has a %15 probability of going bankrupt. If the FDIC has to start rescuing us this could get ugly indeed.
I saw this coming a mile away.
I know I should have liquidated stocks and moved into gold and euros.
But I listened to the talking morons on CNBC (all the while calling them morons).
I have no one to blame but myself.
pissed off patricia @ 30:
The best news of his presidency is that each day brings us one step closer to the end of it - hopefully...
dennis @ 41:
But after 9/11 and the country was primed for action, didn't shrub tell us to go shopping?
Dr. Who @ 6:
LOL Who could have imagined?
pissed off patricia @ 30:
Good Question. I have asked myself that many times. What one thing has Bush done positive for the U.S. in the last 7 years? I cannot think of a single thing. The country has fallen behind the rest of the world in so many categories. The U.S. was much better in 2000, than 2007. Meanwhile, all Bush thinks about is war & terrorists!
When your economic plan is based solely upon criminality, plunder and unsustainable practices, when it requires the destruction of the middle class, when a salient feature of your economic plan is to concentrate all wealth and means into the hands a a very select few, when it ships the means of creating wealth offshore, when it is powered by accumulation of previously unimaginable levels of debt in which the intent never to pay back is broadly telegraphed, when it is part of the plan to let the currency become worthless, what do they expect? Of course the markets are tanking. You can only maintain an illusion of value for just so long under such a structure. In the meantime, the plunderers and theives have made their arrangements to escape when everything finally does tank.
We ain't seen nuthin' yet.
Gold is on sale today for 800.00 per oz.
Things are going to get real interesting after November 15th when it is revealed that billions and more likely trillions of collateralized debt derivatives are actually worthless.
A few banks may very well implode and some brokerage firms are already on their way to bankruptcy. If you have shares with those brokers you had better hope they don't have your shares loaned out. You could find yourself standing in a line of creditors hoping to get back a few pennies on the dollar, and don't think SEPA will save you.
Instead of receiving golden parachutes, some of these banksters should be in jail or livin in a van down by the river.
=hadenuf @ 33:
well, in that case, don't forget that he wants OBGYN docs to be able to "practice their love with women all across this country." and who could possibly be against that?
When roaming the streets looking for the crooks, they're the one who repealed the Glass- Steagall act that provided for the separation of commercial and investment banks in order to LIMIT speculation by banks.Brilliant Republicans, just brilliant you scum.
L.A. Confidential @ 55:
The world has plenty of oil, but it is running out of easy oil. The easy light-sweet crude from friendly spots is disappearing. Nationalization of oil is the trend and big oil is getting shut out. All the CEO's want to do is make it through the next few quarters, that's why they want access to protected lands and waterways for drilling.
Daisy Zimmerly @ 63:
There will be a major bailout of the U.S. banks with the help of foreign governments. It's being kept on the down-low but preparations are being made now. It's quite possible that Citibank is insolvent as we speak. The situation will not get catastrophic because the rest of th world cannot let it get to that point. Global finance has become too intertwined. International bailouts are nothing new of course, the U.S. bailout of Mexico in '94 is particulary interesting or infuriating, depending on your point of view.
China's dumping Dollar$ and the Ben Laden Saudi's (Bush BFFs) slush the U$ Buck$ in a stew of more solid stuff. Remember to flush ... America's financial future reeks!
If I may offer a suggestion, the middle class needs to start doing what the very poor are (at least where I live.) Band together to create little co-ops. It allows you to share food, fuel and services and it keeps you from being as dependent on the economy. In the very poor, the single family unit buyers cannot succeed (without welfare; and I think that'll go pretty quick with bush), because no single family has enough resources to buy everything they need for themselves. It is entirely possible that the recession is going to drive people back into group bargaining, as well as group living. Personally, I'm not going back to my family, but I have formed alliances with my neighbors and friends. I'll be very interested to see what effect a recession has on the resurgence of the union and whether (like the early 20th century recession, it will result in collectivist bargaining for things like housing.) Barter economies are not ideal, but as the US economy tanks, there is a need for goods and services that conventional buying and selling will not be able to answer.
And get used to eating less and using less. The more careful we are (and the more we can chose to enter the economy and not be forced into it), the more agency we have.
The next few days will be crucial. Let's hope that there is no interesting news. I have been reading through some financial reports and there are a lot of scary possibilities out there; I had no idea that bankers would ever get this careless. In return for pathetic interest rates you expect some safety. We have been robbed.
Anybody know how well-funded the FDIC is?
I would advise selling up and investing heavily in canned goods and firearms.
J @ 27:
Out of crisis comes opportunity - as the saying goes.
Maybe the forthcoming market crash will provide the opportunity for a more sane and just economic system and healthier planet.
Maybe the crash will help us to see the need for cooperation rather than competition, a sharing of resources world wide, the elimination of the unjust debt on 3rd world countries, and a simplification of our means of living to ease the burden on our planet.
It’s totally obscene that 25,000 – 30,000 people are dying daily from starvation, while we waste, hoard and misuse our resources in the West . Hopefully the crash will allow us to see the reality of the situation and act accordingly, with our human heart.
@Vitas Vas:
And *who* got that whole 401K thing into the tax books, rich politicians or poor politicians?
@Paradigm Fred:
Yeah, and maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt.
George (~Bush) @ 36:
This is very true. For those of you with excellent credit and Capital One cards, you might have noticed that your once low 'fixed for life' interest rate on your card is no longer 'fixed' at almost double the rate that you used to pay.
Obviously, we think we'll see a credit tightening across the board. However, this time we will see a disproportionate impact on 'good' or 'excellent' credit risks because the banks will be trying to increase revenues and will continue to seek marginal credit risks because they promise to be so lucrative.
And besides, there's no downside, because these financial institutions can just whine when the house of cards fall and get a bailout from the government. Socialize the risk but privatize the profits.
Does anyone actually read Bonddad's posts? They are based on technical analysis, which to my untrained eye look like things you do on a Lite-Brite. Go ahead, panic, and sell all of your stocks and mutual funds if it makes you feel better. But don't do it solely on the basis of an glossy chart with pretty colors.
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