It looks like 'blue' skies ahead
By Steve Benen Monday Nov 26, 2007 7:15amIn light of Congress’ low approval ratings, some have suggested that the wave that washed Republicans out of the congressional majority 12 months ago has already subsided, and both chambers will once again be up for grabs 12 months from now.
CQ’s Bob Benenson and Jonathan Allen took a very thorough look at the landscape and have come to the opposite conclusion.
[E]very traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the “over/under” balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more. They now have the power of incumbency to give them added advantages in raising money, attracting top-tier candidates, controlling the legislative agenda and capturing the political zeitgeist.
All this leads Democrats to profess clear confidence that they’ll retain majority control next fall. And not only that, but they may now harbor realistic visions of emerging with 55 to 58 seats in the Senate (pushing them within arm-twisting distance of the 60 votes needed to bust a filibuster) as well more than 240 seats in the House, a cushion that neither party has enjoyed since the end of the last Democratic era in the House, in 1994.
As Kevin Drum noted, the report added, "[T]he biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans."
Something to consider the next time the right brags about Congress' low approval ratings.
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Congressional approval ratings don't mean a thing to me. Look at the last 2 years approval ratings and tell me the highest number you see at ANY point in time. (ill give you a hint: its in April of 2007)
yeah, I always hear that too...the Dem's are more unpopular then the Repug's and I always answer with "the low approval ratings are because they are not impeaching the Republican criminals." how you could have a lower approval rating then when the other side takes a hit because they won't prosecute you!
...oh and frist
Kevin @ 3:
I was frist once by the police...they made me take a wide stance
If Republicans get re-elected, we won't have blue skies much longer
Well just because they got Foxnews et al. on it, "the do nothing Congress" streamers they've been floating around just isn't sticking. Obstructionist Congress? HELL yeah, anything to stop the mf's from doing any more damage. The Dem's didn't just get voted in to set up a dream liberal utopia, they were voted in to do exactly what they are doing, which is put the freakin' breaks on these power hungry madmen.
Dawn, anyone?
T]he biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans.”
talk about a country being in the shitter..... dems blew it.
lol the elections are rigged...lets not play stupid.
That would be great, depending on what they do with it...will they really roll back executive power? Will they find a realistic way out of (or even forward) in Iraq? Will they put the concerns of their constituents above those of lobbyists? Will they stop torturing and spying on people? Will they find a way for the government to live within its means?
I certainly hope so...at least we won't have to listen to "we just don't have the votes" anymore.
The Republicans have set the bar so low, that the Dems only have be only slightly less feckless and reckless to sweep the elections. Unfortunately for us non-politico-Americans, we've already driven off the cliff (the wheels had fallen off and engine had exploded just before we crashed through the guardrail, careened down the mountain, and launched ourselves into "blue skies"). The time for the Dems to try applying the brakes or steering has long since passed.
When we "land", most of the issues we currently advance as important to the survival of our country will seem quaint. Just like our Constitution. The next "Great American Leader" has yet to emerge. He or she is not among our current crop of elected officials or candidates.
This is going to get ugly. I wish I wasn't involved.
It's refreshing to hear that the Democrats are once again capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
They will take it for granted that the electorate wants 'change' and will fumble the ball. Republican Lite just doesn't play as well to the people as Miller Lite does.
The democrats elected to congress last year have failed to get some of the things they claimed to have on the table done but the republicans are still running the war and the torture camps. I don't see them taking anything back, especially with their "front runner" for the White House war mongering, spouting patriotism vitriol and looking to enact an even tighter surveillance state.
Reality is give the Dems a solid majority and you;ll see some fur fly. We as Americans need to get out the vote for dems. If they are given a majority and still screw it up 2 yrs. later they are history in the House. Impeachment of the Bush cabal is a fantasy they simply don't have the votes and it's a waste of time. It also gives Shrub another point to crow about his strength
The Democrats need to do a better job of getting the word out on the work they have been doing over the last year. Sure, a lot of bills aren't getting passed, but it's because of obstructionist Republicans and the Vetoing President.
The congress (with Democratic control) have been on the right side of some important issues (minimum wage, SCHIP, war timeline) and brought necessary OVERSIGHT back to government.
Dems need to fight and not let Republicans set the talking points for this next election.
Make it clear that more Dems in Washington will help get things done.
what happened to thinkprogress.org? it's been down for days...
It all sounds good, but if all we are going to get are a bunch of stealth Republicans, neocon -Lites, fascist enablers and corporatist prostitutes who are representing themselves as Democrats, nothing is going to change. Those "Democrats " who have demonstrated that they are "anything-but" also need to be replaced with real Democrats. There needs to be a revolution in the election booths, because it looks to me that the minority and the majority of the majority seem indifferent to the will of the People.
Looks like time for a 'Re-Branding' of the Republican party.
'Terrist-Fighting Defenders of the Homeland'?
'Patriotic Warriors Against Islamofascism'?
'Wanna-Be Conservatives'?
Or, more honestly,
'Bush's Dupes'?
'Israeli Sh*t-Shovelers'?
'Constitutional DeConstructers'?
http://www.pollingreport.com/CongJob.htm
Another reason that the repugs may lose big time is that they have made their careers preying on fears of terrorism and fanning the hate of homophobia. Yet in the second case just how many repugs in the last year have been taken down in hypocritical gay sex scandals?! A possible new development surrounding Trent Lott's sudden urge to quit may have allegedly to do with him purchasing the services of a male DC gay escort by the name of Benjamin Nicholas. Here's the link: http://www.towleroad.com/2007/11/is-a-male-escor.html I love how the repugs fan the hate towards gays for votes, then the closet cases wind up getting burned!
It doesn't matter.
The US is a one party state.
You have two pro-corporation, anti democratic parties, with nothing to choose between them.
Reflecting on the years of government and business this past Republican administration has shown America’s need to resolve on how to get some distance from the culture of corruption, or more importantly, when we all should have been defended by the Constitution. Instead, Americans have witnessed how easy it is to be Constitutional victims and abused. The same goes for a tug of war in ideological Bible books, religious wear, and personal expressions in customs.
And worse, there are those who transcend to a hard ideal since there is a separation of church and state, for laws fundemental to the Constitution, there are those who interpret the Constitution and accept that, the church or the spirit should be separated from the mind as well, when governing?
Debated wildly now, and finding out what “ Is Is”, or “I’am that I’am”, should ones religious believe affect governance? In the absolute sense, or is this the monumental flip of flips of flip flops to the Constitution? Where, no God should exist to affect ones thinking in terms of Constitutional law, or any type of God is believed to be acceptable but should not apply to laws of the land. Wow, is that Conservative, or is it Liberal? But, strikingly both Conservatives and Liberals just threw the Bible into the furnace of bias.
Since the Democrats gained a slight majority in Congress and the Senate an incredible wave of self awareness has permeated, especially for me, because of the Internet. Over a decade of no over sight has proliferated into an “Open Range” in government. Some how it seems so ass backwards, the way we are treated by our leadership, the way we are moving in time. One could ask is society finding out that there is really a “Life Continuum” not to be afraid of?
Most importantly the Internet because of its wide connection to the public is able to display emotions and character in a way words can not. Most revealing are the proliferation of books being published and the authors selling them on national cable television these past years. Much of the content, for these wonderful books have select morsels of isolated history described by some in the media as “Boom Shells” but known all along. A flurry of new books hitting the free market are drawing a clear picture of not only the poor decisions of our current leadership Bush and Company, but the totally avoided issues, suppressed, biased by Mainstream Media that does not challenge bad government, the current government. Moreover clearly shows America the ownership, public persuasion, and what you need to when they want you to know is totally controlled by the rich and powerful. Of course after the Republican Party sucked out trillions of tax dollars through secret war profiteering are now claiming now the rich are on the Democratic side. Typical Republican, after sacking the treasury many Republicans are leaving public service at a rate never experienced. Talk about “Cut and Run” Lott.
A different label does not distinguish a winner. The lack of leadership on crucial issues out of Congress regarding Executive privilege reflects poorly on the the majority.
They have mastered Namby-Pamby though.
ChrisM70 @ 14:
Who's going to spread that word? CNN? MSNBC? Fox? The newspapers? Cal Thomas and Max Boot still get printed in the "liberal" L.A. Times.
What's going on with Trent Lott & Larry Flynt?
The American people have finally woken up. They see the republicans blocking legislation. They see bush trying to blame the Democrats for bill not getting passed that republicans stalled. The see that bush has vetoed social bills necessary to the people, while he wants more and more to siphon off to the contractors in Iraq.
NO matter how bush and the right wing nutso's on cable and network TV and the MSM try to spin it, the public SEES and they LISTEN finally, and they know just who is screwing up this country.
With their current numbers and "dogs" the Dems are doing well to apply the brakes.
With better numbers and some centrist support from Snow etc, they will do better.
With a Dem in the whitehouse, they will do even better.
SAD FOR THE GOP... that the best attack they can muster against their BUSH-SUCKS 30 point ratings is......nah nah nah nah congress isn't loved.
ON THE BRIGHT SIDE we will only have to hear that BUSH has hit an all-time-low 29 more times before he runs out of numbers.
VOTE DEMOCRATIC, VOTE OFTEN
AND REMEMBER TO REMIND YOUR REPUBLICAN FRIENDS THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH TURNOUT IN 2008, DEMOCRATS WILL BE VOTING NOVEMBER 4, REPUBLICANS NOVEMBER 5
Aside from about 20 representatives, the Democrats have done next to nothing.
Special kudos to Henry Waxman and Bruce Braley. Braley is friggin' senate material.
Booo to nancy for never putting impeachment on the table. That is the Democratic legacy. They enabled Bush and then failed to put things right.
And the Dems are really gonna be 'Blue', when they take over in '09 and are faced with the horrendous mess Bush has put us in.
They'll have to have a sixteen-year rule, minimum, just to undo all the contra-American laws and rules and regulations the republicans have imposed upon us. Let alone try to accomplish some of the desperately needed programs the bushies have ignored or destroyed, like healthcare (especially for kids, preferably for all), education (especially for kids, preferably for all), economic security (especially for kids, preferably for all), and on and on and on.
Perhaps they (the new dems) should pretend they're the original Continental Congress, and retrace all the original steps, and put eveything back in place, as step 1. of the new 'blue rule'.
We all better hope that the 'New Blue' rule doesn't have to take possession of the U.S. government through a hail of bullets from Blackwater gunslingers, hired by the bushits to 'Protect Our Nation From Democratic Terrorism'.
k street's going to have a lot of new elephantal employees
Some Dems want to do the right thing. Heck, even a few Repubs want to do the right things.
The issue is corruption, and class-ism. There is class warfare being waged in the USA, but it is not done with firing of weapons at citizens (as much) as it is done by passing laws and selectively enforcing the law in such a way as to disempower the middle class and exploit the poor. The bankers who control the flow of money hate us, and they declared war on us long ago.
Thanks to the IMF and other big money interests (read: oil companies), a lot of people in Latin America understand this, and you are seeing populist movements really gaining momentum there. You may or may not like Chavez (I'm not a huge fan), but the reality is that when the USA (=the bad guys, get used to it) come knocking, EVERYONE in Venezuela drops their bickering because they know they have to unite solidly against us, big oil, and big banks. They've been there, done that.
For decades, the US used destabilization policies, election manipulation, and misrepresented themselves as the bringers of Democracy, when the true agenda was imperialism and exploitation.
Americans have to realize that now, the same people that caused all that horrible suffering in Latin America, and now the Middle East, have turned their attention towards the American system, and will do exactly the same to the people of America - economically break us, rig our elections, and exploit us, all the while talking about spreading democracy and free trade.
As in Latin America, it will take a huge popular backlash and a few electable leaders who understand their future is to be allied with the populist movements, not the ruling mafia. We are, in fact seeing the beginnings of that now.
As for the Church, look at the role that the Church has taken in Latin America. Many of the priests have gotten it right, and sided with the people, not the exploiters. Some of them paid with their lives, but that just fueled the struggle even more.
We need some courageous Pastors and Priests to get it right in this country too and start representing the interests of their congregations - namely, the right to be free and live free in the eyes of God.
Who would Jesus make sub-prime loans to? Who would Jesus torture? Who would Jesus bomb? Would Jesus import workers under slave-like conditions to make cheap crap and sell it at an 1800% profit to people who believed in Him?
You churchgoers have got to start doing some soul-searching and talk about these issues in your church meetings. So far you've let yourself be pushed around and herded around. There are quotes all over the internet of what Dick Cheney actually thinks of you religious people - he disdains you, but he'll exploit you and take your votes, just like he will anyone else. You people need to start thinking about that.
Neocon Nancy needs to hear from us - we need to give her the message. There's a new populist train gaining momentum, and she got to be speaker by saying she was with us. Then she jumped tracks and got on the Dick Cheney train. We need to let her know she's chosen the losing side. Frantically running around the halls of Congress trying to cover Cheney's butt from the impeachment he deserves is the WRONG side to be on. And we know it.
Hillary hasn't entirely fallen out of favor, but she needs to be told, by the public through disapproval ratings, that she's there for a purpose. If she doesn't get it, then we should impeach her too. The oath is to uphold the Constitution. You aren't fit for public office if you are unwilling or unable to do that.
Time to pull the weeds out of the White House lawn, and fumigate the parasites out of the Capitol.
“[T]he biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans.”
That's ALL they have going for them. Besides, having an election may just be an exercise in futility. Just something to continue the illusion that America is still a democracy. Something for us to do that makes us feel like we still have voice. I mean think about it.....when was the last time anyone in our Government gave a rats ass about what the People think? Our troops are still in Iraq, Cheney and Bush were never impeached, Habeas Corpus continues to be suspended, torture is still legal and the Executive Branch has more power than ever in the history of our country.
I wonder who will win the prize this time around? I wonder who BigBrother will choose? The man or woman(?) that will continue to support AmeriKan aggression.
Hmmm, 55-58 senate seats just short of the arm-twisting 60, is that right?
considering how many bluedogs there are, a miss is as good as a mile.
And if Zogby's correct that any repug will beat Hillary (but not Edwards or Obama), repug spin has spun voters too-busy-to-think to realize they just done got spun into exactly the spiderweb the repug media has been spinning for 2 years. Fait Accompli`.
Wake me up in 2012.
yogi-one@30 you said,
"Hillary hasn’t entirely fallen out of favor, but she needs to be told, by the public through disapproval ratings, that she’s there for a purpose. If she doesn’t get it, then we should impeach her too. The oath is to uphold the Constitution. You aren’t fit for public office if you are unwilling or unable to do that.
Time to pull the weeds out of the White House lawn, and fumigate the parasites out of the Capitol."
UNbelieveable! Solidifying Hillary so BAD you're thinking ahead to threatening her with impeachment? Wow, and Wow again. Wouldn't it be A HELLUVA LOT EASIER TO MAKE SURE THE THE WENCH GETS BUMPED than to assume she's president (she's not even nominated, and any repug can and will beat her according to Zogby), flip the list and vote for Kucinich? Such defeatism to accept media manipulation images instead of voting with your heart and mind. WTF????????
Sincerely, nothing personal, but you're thinking like an abused wife!
It would be a big mistake for Dems to be overconfident. The Repugs are sneaky, conniving, and will stop at nothing to cheat. Yes, there are "red" Dems. They need to be chased back to the Repug party where they belong.
Preachyer Boob @ 28:
How many of those gunslingers are there? I read a few weeks ago, around 20,000...but my pa, said he heard closer to 200,000...gonna take ALOT of angry, ARMED patriot citizens to take those guys out.
howard dean is doing a great job of recruiting new 'real' people into the dem party but i kind of wish he would jump back in somehow.
again tho he is being very effective where he is.
liberalNmoderation @ 35:
YeeHaw! We should have a bit of everything they have. Lest we forget, there are at least 5 other competitive mercenary companies here in the good old us-of-a. If the repugs (or even a Hillary) succeed in '08 just watch these lunatics mobilize before that president is even sworn in.
one political commenter made the point that people don't quit when they believe victory is ahead... it's almost '08 and Republicants are dropping like flies...
like it matters at all.
you all talk about it like it is fantasy football.
i worked my ass off to get Dems elected to the House and Senate in the last election. Here we are... few years later... what good did any of it do? (Thank Churchmouse Pelosi for one)
The war goes on, the planet still dies, the rich still get richer... and meanwhile, the Democrats are still thinking about whether or not they should smack George's hand. Worthless... all of this talk is worthless.
Actually that's not blue skies, that's blue lead based sky paint from China.
The frightening part is this may be true. Somehow it may not matter that the Republicans tossed their oversight responsibilities during the first six years of the Bush administration over the side of their sinking ship. More important to them to investigate lies under oath about a blow job than investigating a Bush administration intelligence snowjob that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of injuries, over a million deaths and 4 million refugees. Sicko
I swear if the Republicans grabbed what Congressman Kucinich has been pushing for Impeachment of Cheney they could trump the Democrats and take the 2008 election. We know they would not be doing it for the right reasons (they had five years) but what the hell most of the Democrats have been wasting time on this very serious issue.
Hey Steve - this country was not designed to have political parties. Stiffle the poliburo nonsense. We need to either neuter the authority of political parties or eliminate them all together.
Actually, this country wasn't designed to have so many direct elections.
And even right from the beginning we had the Federalists and the Anti-Federalists.
But unless the Dems stand up and show some backbone, who cares? It's obvious from the Congressional approval rating that I'm not the only one who feels this way. They're elected to serve as a counterweight to the President and if they don't do their jobs, they will not be popular.
ysaddaden @ 43:
Representation today is through political parties - that is a poliburo.
Our system was designed to provide representation from my congressional district and through my state via two senators.
Did you notice the absence of parties? I did.
Politburo was the communist system of only one party.
An institution of one party is not a good metaphor for an argument against multiple parties.
Today Russia has brought back the Dumas.
So it's not only not appropos for your main thesis, it's also a historical antiquity.
Oh yes, and in the text of the original Constitution, senators were appointed by state legislatures, etc, and were not directly voted for by the populace until the passage of the XVII amendment passed by Congress in 1912, and ratified in 1913.
You're trying to argue away your own right to vote.
ysaddaden @ 47:
Why is that a bad thing? Look at the idiots that have ben elected and re-elected and re-elected over and over and over again.
Feinstein, Shummer, Delay, Lott, Frist. Name after name of 'dead wood' and empty heads... Yes some are gone. More need to go. Like start with the Democrat 'leadership' that refused to censure DF. Off with their heads, or at least off turn their paychecks...
And democrats could lose to the party that puts this out there in the media as if it's good news: Olmert, Abbas agree to reach deal by end of '08
What a fucking joke!
Like the 'arms control treaty' Bush 'forced' the Russians to sign that did just about nothing at all...
Shit, they might as well declare that November 11 2008 is going to be a sunny day in Washington DC! Uh huh...
End of '08 announcement: "We have agreed to disagree, and that's all folks..."
Or the now famous Bush line: "We have tried to meet the deadline but realized early on that it was unattainable. (and forgot to tell anyone before hand)"
PinkyLeftBrain @ 48:
Don't you need to vote them out first?
It wasn't until the party platform of Andrew Jackson, in 1824, that they even gave the franchise to all white men regardless as to whether or not they owned property.
Doesn't seem to make much difference, the american people voted the dems in to stop the war and all they have done is keep funding it.
ysaddaden @ 47:
You dont have a clue, do you.
You are being trivial. I used the term poliburo to describe a party based political system - which this has become.
Senators were and are statewide officials. I'm not arguing against anyones right to vote. I'm arguing against a subversion of the constitution. The system defines my representation via one representative and two senators. Today, representation is via a party. The system has been subverted.
I dont give a goddamn what the senator from New York thinks or wants. The people in New York should. I'm not in New York. But by virtue of a party label, I am made to care.
National republican investment in the 2006 democratic primary in my district resulted in a popular progressive losing to a conservative inherited money DLC liebermanesque democrat. This would not have happened IF we were not a politburo. This happened precisely because we are. This was done for party power outside my district.
This system WAS NOT designed to have political parties. And I repeat - either the parties need to be neutered or eliminated. We are witnessing party political warfare. They are NOT waging this war with you in mind. This war is strictly a war of self interest. In the end, the people will lose.
That's what I get for having Political Science, and Paralegal degrees.
I would also say that the subversion of the Constitution isn't from parties, which are not mentioned one way or another, but from special interest campaign contributions. Even if parties never existed, that kind of cash flow would corrupt any system.
Some people have to understand that the Democratic Party and Democrats alike are NOT
PERFECT.... But I'll be damned if I'm going to say I am sorry for being one. As far as the
Democratic Congress getting bad reviews..well "You can't please everybody all the time
but you can please somebody most of the time"
Also whether you have no parties, or two parties acting like one, you often get tragic mistakes like Vietnam and now Iraq.
If there's no real give an take between groups you wind up with Tweedledum and Tweedledummer.
But I don't like multi-party systems either, because then you get coalition governments that can collapse at any time.
The disillusion with Congress is pretty easy to figure out. Half the people are angry at Republicans for being... you know... corrupt warmongers. The other half are angry at the Democrats for not being vocal enough or having enough votes to stop the corrupt warmongering Republicans. I think the common denominator here is, people don't like the corrupt warmongering Republicans. The answer is pretty clear. With 61 Democrats in the Senate everyone can be satisfied. I think that's why so many powerful Republican Senators are retiring.
"I can't have my way so I'm taking my ball and going home." ... Good!
I'm all for a democratic congress in '08...just not the ones we have now. Let's get rid of the Bushdogs like Feinstein et al and vote in somebody who will listen to US!!!
And the biggest factor working against the republicans is that they are republicans.
I'm tellin' ya, 'rebranding' is coming soon.
'Right-Thinking Conservative Twits'?
'Fearful Freedom Fighters'?
'The only ones who can save you from the terrist threat'?
Piss on Republicans! (They get off on it)
not to make a big deal of it.. but this thread opens with one of those infamous... 'some say'... straw man arguments that Fox news is so famous for. that's not a good sign.
"...capturing the political zeitgeist." Pahleeze, the dim-o-crats controlling the House & Senate have anything but the essence of the moment. They have not impeached a single member of this administration, court appointees, or made any real attempt to de-fund the occupations in the Middle East. They are just a different face to the same problem we have had since 1996.
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