The Bradley Effect - The Barack Man's Burden?
By Bill W. Tuesday Jan 08, 2008 4:01pm
As soon as the results started trickling in the explanations began as to how the polls could have been so wrong. Was it the voters reaction to the media's coverage of a show of emotion from Hillary? Or could it have been those damn Diebold machines again?! On MSNBC, WaPo's Eugene Robinson brought up one explanation that's now being floated around: the Bradley Effect, in which people supposedly lied to pollsters about whether they would vote for a black candidate.
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NBC's political director Chuck Todd on the Bradley Effect and why it may have been an influence in New Hampshire primary and not in the Iowa caucus:
In Iowa - a very public caucus . In New Hampshire, you have a voting curtain. And the privacy of the vote versus not.
And Howard Fineman explained why he thinks that could be a problem for Obama if true:
It's Barack Obama's burden and blessing that he can't really - I don't think - talk about this a whole lot. His whole message is about bringing people together. He can't start complaining about miscalculations in the polls.
Do note that there seems to be some reason to doubt that the Bradley Effect explains the outcome, especially considering the polls were actually right about Obama, they just didn't account for the surge in votes for Hillary. Ezra wonders if it wasn't the caucuses that did the discriminating.
Don't look to me to postulate one way or another (I will say that Pam's "Tweety Effect" echoed by Rachel Maddow holds some appeal for me though). We'll be hearing lots more about the reasons for the pollster's failure in NH in the days to come. I'm just enjoying the fact the polls lied so the pundits now have to eat crow and it's starting to look like we might have an actual race on our hands where the voters and not the powers that be get to do the deciding. Who'd have thunk?
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Why ask why?
Have we absolutely ruled out vote fraud on this case?
Where is the next primary? SC? Ours is Jan. 29th.
Ours if Februrary 5th, but by then the nomination may be a foregone conclusion.
As an Obama supporter I say. Forget over analyzing. 5 days ago he was supposed to lose big.
It's on to NV where the SEIU, The Culinary Workers Union, and UNITE HERE have endorsed him.
And hopefully tweety can keep his mouth shut.
What polls?
Or are you referring to the MSM's 'prediction' ala Kreskin?
In a general poll regarding democratic candidates - large portions of votes cast for both O'Bama and Edwards were anti-Clinton votes. Under those circumstances, its clear that there were more anti-Clinton votes cast than pro-Clinton votes.
Really, this is about the confluence of the MSM's face and egg. Nothing more.
oy, howard fineman weighs in to give his reason for the reason that the pollsters and pundits, like, umm, fineman, were wrong...
i wish these 'experts' would stfu.
it is like watching a snake trying to swallow itself.
billw, I made this point on a thread below, and would like to make it one more time, as it's actually more relevent to your thread:
When you have this many different polls all showing the same exact thing leading up to the election, and when we have a state with 81 per cent Diebold machines, which are clearly easily hacked, as seen in the HBO special, and when you have Senator Clinton ready to concede Nevada and South Carolina just two days ago, and when you have high young turnout (who overwhelmingly favor Obama) and then, on election day, the Democratic candidate favored by Rupert Murdoch and his corporate friends “miraculously” eeks out a victory, it’s probably time for Robert Mueller to launch an FBI investigation.
It was probably multiple reasons. But prior to Iowa, Barack was supposed to have lost anyways. He actually closed the gap. Glad that Barack is not using the race card - can't say that about Hillary and her constantly using the Gender card.
Anyone notice the difference between Obama's concession speech yesterday and Hillary's last week. She blamed and dismissed Iowa voters. Obama did not
I'm just hoping it's still a horse race by Feb. 5. If so, it will be the first time in my voting life (and I'm in late middle age) that the nomination will NOT have been decided before I get to vote.
I'm beginning to think the fix was in. Not from Bill or Hillary, from higher up.
Bastards had the nerve to do it on Elvis's birthday, too.
Other political pundits have even another explanation. With N.Hampshire comprised of
45 percent "Independents"(a very, very large number when compared to other States)
it is being surmised that many of them-there independents(tho perhaps favoring Obama)
voted for McCain on the Repub. side of the aisle, feeling that Obama was a shooo-in
and that McCain needed to come out on top in their State instead of either Romney
or Huckabee. Not saying it has any basis, but that's another prespective. Only interviewing the Independent voters will give us an answer.
@billw - I do not see where Ezra says that Iowa discriminated
Well whatever the reason it's over now and I'm ready to move on. I don't think there are that many people in NH who would allow the "Bradley effect" inside the voting booth with them. I think we should pay attention to our favorite candidate, help them where we can and ignore the shit out of the talking heads on tv who don't know a damned bit more about the future outcome of any election than we do.
i'd be willing to bet that people lied to the media and pollsters just because they could screw with them.
no other reason.
the exit polls matched the results so I'd say these elections were on the level. I'd sya poor preelection polls were to blame. Or was the MSN lying about the preelection polls to influncence
The Tweety Effect! Now there's a name for Chris "You sure smell good" Matthew's blatant, visceral misogyny. I'm still waiting to hear any of the MSM (Main Stream Misogynists) use the correct term "misogyny" rather than the more palatable "gender bias."
Hail to the Chimp @ 9:
I did notice that Barack didn't cry. Good. The president shouldn't cry, as surely as there's no crying in baseball.
from all i have read today about the NH primary, one common thread runs through a lot of posts: distrust.
distrust of the process, of the people, of the machines, of the pundits, etc. (and i am right there with y'all).
what kind of democracy is it when citizens aren't sure whether or not votes are being counted? we have known for years and years that there are systemic problems with voting in america, and--in the country that portrays itself as the bastion of democratic action--nothing has been done.
debating issues, politicians, platforms, etc. is what, as americans, we should be talking about. and it is stunning that, in 2008, we have to wonder whether or not our vote machines are rigged, if voter rolls have been purged, voter caging, and on and on.
and, further, the bush legacy is a legacy of distrust. from the TIPS program to the PATRIOT ACT to bush's criminal and orwellian misrule, our social environment is marked by distrust.
america? where are you????
Polls really show only trends and relationships, not necessarily concrete data.
But the MSM hates vagaries and look for stories, that are inevitably wrong, but like boosh, they blame the intelligence.
What I think happened in NH was Iowa. Clinton always had her base of supporters (look at any national poll) and they assumed she was just going to win the primaries...set 'em up, knock 'em down. Iowa dispelled that notion.
So the Clinton activists got out there (boots on the ground) and rallied her supporters to the polls. Obama did a better job of that in Iowa, Clinton did a better job in NH.
Now that Obama supporters realize they don't necessarily have the momentum, there will be more pressure on them to vote in the upcoming states. So both Clinton and Obama supporters are 'fired up, ready to go'. Should be a nail-biter from here on.
Emmit @ 17:
Yoda didn't cry, even after all the Jedi were wiped out. He needed to hold it together.
Obviously, Yoda's a movie character, but my point is that the President shouldn't publicly cry, he needs to hold it together for America.
Emmit @ 11:
Elvis Costello?
sassafra @ 14:
Good one and a great idea. Think I'll use if ever polled. I feel obligated to screw with
the MSM every opportunity presented. They are mostly ALL sleeze bags.
Orangutan. @ 2:
There is no such thing as vote fraud unless it's done by the Republican Party. LOL! I remember once pointing out how many Dems were corrupt (it's well documented online) as well as the Republicans (same...well documented) and was attacked for being Pro-Rep, or anti-Dem for pointing out how idiotic partisan politics truly are. Sigh. Nothing has really changed.
VOT-ER FRAUD!
Come on?
Can't we just raise the idea?
It's so obvious. Is it not important?
.
WHY did just Obama supporters ditch for Hillary?
WHY did the polling for the GOP and the rest of the Dems not flintch?
MY ASS the Bradly effect! If that was the case, it would have been evident in more than one candidates polling numbers.
.
I believe the media said We the people LIE> and I believe the machines are rigged.
Emmit @ 8:
shhhhhhhh!!!!! Don't wake them. THAT only happens versus RePublicans.
23 Doggiebobo
I remember back in 1988 getting phone polls on the Bush/Dukakis election. One asked me if I was a Republican or a Democrat, and I answered I was a cynic. Another asked me if the election were held tommorrow would I vote for Bush or Dukakis, I answered Pee Wee Herman. And another I remember asked me if I was a liberal or a conservative, and I answered conservative, I believe in the Divine Right of kings.
Ummmm... Wouldn't the effect be the exact opposite? People would be more willing to vote for him in a private phone booth instead of a public forum. This "theory" makes absolutely no sense. It's an election and believe it or not, people can and often do change their minds at the last minute. Now please, back to the normal Hillary bashing that goes on here.
Also, #6 - by that same logic if you count up all the Obama/Hillary votes that's a lot of non-votes for Edwards and if you count up all the Hillary/Edwards votes that's a whole lot of non-votes for Obama. So I guess they are all big losers but especially Hillary. It's clear that in reality she should drop out of the race. And none of that even counts all the Repbulican primary votes that obviously didn't go to her.
Emmit @ 21:
Oh good god. What the president should not do is deceive the nation into going to war based on bad intel, or outright lies. The president should not put through budgets that drive up debt. The president should not undermine the constitution.
Cry? Crying is what humans do. Presidents are humans. I fail to see how this is a problem.
I haven't committed to a candidate yet. I'm certainly not going to choose a candidate because she's a woman or he's black.
ysbaddaden @ 29:
Damn, and you live here in Texas(as I) and YOU get polled every 20 years. When is
it my turn?
Samson- @ 18:
Everyone in America, nay, the world, should watch the HBO documentary, Hacking Democracy.
No one should trust those damn machines. It's like someone said over at HUufington Post, we're probably not getting our country back until we all show up on election day with baseball bats and demolish every Diebold machine on the premises.
I think many on the left grew complacent regarding the voting machine problems after the 2006 mid-terms.
JW @ 31:
I agree with everything you said, even the part about the president crying in private. Of course we're all human and cry. But in public the President should hold it together.
Emmit @ 34:
thanks emmit, i will check that out... lemme bop over to netflix to see if they have that.
.
Congress members get $4,000 pay raise
WASHINGTON - Fortunately for members of Congress, their pay isn't tied to their approval ratings. Lawmakers in 2008 will receive salaries of $169,300, a boost of $4,100 over the pay they have lived with since January 2006.
I have doubts about the Diebold voting machines used. The difference between the New Hampshire polls and the NH voting results is suspicious. My big concern is not that I suspect the Clinton campaign rigged the NH results, but rather that the voting process is not as transparent as it should be.
I don't buy the Bradley Effect as an explanation. My observations indicate that people who won't vote for someone because of race don't lie about who they're going to vote for, they just make up another reason for why they're voting the way they are.
"I'm not voting against Obama because he's black, I'm voting against him because he doesn't have enough experience."
Samson- @ 36:
You can click on that link I gave you, if you don't want to wait. I think almost all of it's up on youtube.
So let me get this straight, a 2 term Senator that has raised over $100 million dollars and recently won re-election with 80% of the vote wins a primary in a state very close to her own and has generally polled ahead of the other candidates and that can only mean one thing: it's blatantly obvious that the election MUST be rigged. Right, got it.
Sounds like the Diebold/Premier effect.
Don't forget The Bush Effect
31 minutes ago
JERUSALEM - President Bush warned Iran of "serious consequences" if it meddles again with U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, opening a Mideast peacemaking mission Wednesday on an ominous note.
Barack man's burden. Hahah. That's funny, sound like how a Japanese person would say black man's burden.
Blue Lensman @ 39:
Or perhaps, if registered as an "Independent"(tho really being a Republican), a person
may be opposed to Obama because his middle name is Hussin and being narrow minded,
automatically associate him w/Sadam H. There are people "out there" who are soooo
bigoted and narrow minded; I know, I have talked w/some of them.
GMFORD @ 20:
What I think is that you can't rig a caucus, but you can hack a voting machine, and pretty easily at that, if you've seen Hacking Democracy on HBO.
This is what hardball is about tonight. The giant seer of all seers is trying to figure out why the voters made him look like he didn't have his finger on NH's pulse.
Matthews just advertised that another different Hardball will be on at eleven tonight. Is he now going to have three shows per night or is MSNBC about to put someone else in his seven o'clock spot? He didn't give any reason for this new eleven o'clock show.
RC635 @ 41:
Right on...could not have said it myself any better...
pissed off patricia @ 47:
He's working extra hard to try and save his job. I don't think it will work.
Hillary Tears! Obama Rules! (Meanwhile . . . . . . . . .
AP - 17 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - A federal judge refused on Wednesday to delve into the destruction of CIA interrogation videos, saying there was no evidence the Bush administration violated a court order and the Justice Department deserved time to conduct its own investigation.
The decision by U.S. District Judge Henry H. Kennedy was a victory for the Bush administration, which had urged the courts not to wade into a politically charged issue already being investigated by the Justice Department, CIA and Congress.
i really believe there is a bush/cliton alliance. of course the fix was in - the cheat apparatus was already set up. did you see the looks on some of the msnbc peoples faces last night? they couldn't say it but man did the wtf look in there eyes really show through - especially chuck todd - keith o did hint at the weirdness of the vote outcome though. i knew things were going to get whacky when somebody "fainted" at the morning obama event on tuesday. the powerful will do anything to keep and maintain their power... anything. bush cliton bush cliton bush -(as in jeb is next).
Billw on wednesday
"Don’t look to me to postulate one way or another (I will say that Pam’s “Tweety Effect“ echoed by Rachel Maddow holds some appeal for me though). We’ll be hearing lots more about the reasons for the pollster’s failure in NH in the days to come. I’m just enjoying the fact the polls lied so the pundits now have to eat crow and it’s starting to look like we might have an actual race on our hands where the voters and not the powers that be get to do the deciding. Who’d have thunk?"
So, you don't think Diebold has anything to do with it?
I do!
Blue Lensman @ 49:
Doggiebobo @ 48:
I don't care if you're for Clinton, Obama or whoever. Read this long list of various polls which came out right before the election. Taken with the high youth turnout, who overwhelmingly favor Obama, will you at least concede there's something a little fishy about all this?
And, I don't work for the FBI and I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but it is my understanding that where there's smoke, there's fire.
I don't think that anyone who has such a closed mind that they would never vote for a black man is going to lie about it to anyone. Most of them would be all proud of their ignorance.
"That's It?" Jon Stewart Reacts To Press Coverage Of Hillary's "Emotional Meltdown"
"That's it? That's the emotional breakdown that blows the election for her? I'm glad no one here ever sees me get a flu shot," Stewart said.
LOL no doubt John.
Every third comment is about Diebolt, but no bloggers dares go there . . . why? Lack of what cojones! John, pull out the briefs and have a gaze downward. Anything? Kos? Anything there under you Fomer-CIA-agent boxers? Firedoglake girls? . . . well, symbolically, anything? John A at Americanblog . . . I see you as a French brief guy . . . anything? Nope? Yeah, just ignore you comment crowd, your readers, right? Play it safe! Attaboy!
There are three contenders, a white male, a black male and a white female. Race, gender, age, hair style, and favorite color aren't relevant. I'd be satisfied with any of the three because they are all competent (my criteria this year). Each of them offers a different twist. The media is doing a lot to divide us. Maybe they should spend more time concentrating on the issues and informing us.
L.A. Confidential @ 50:
Thank you, LA Confidential. Please keep reminding everyone of this, and the fact that the neocons are still trying to kick up a shitstorm in Iran, even after getting publicly pantsed by all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies involved in the 2007 National Intelligence Report.
God, we can't remove these lunatics from office fast enough. Impeachment belongs on the table, where it's always belonged, for every president in the history of the U.S.
You break the law, you gotta go.
Emmit @ 54:
As someone else said above, Poll are just that...an indicator and not the results. And,
No, I will not concede there is something fishy about the N.Hampshire results.
I think the only people really talking about race and gender upfront are the media morons like Tweety. I honestly think most of America has moved on. We're interested in ideas, experience, competence. At least on the Democratic side. The Republicans are interested in who is the most Goddy, who will blow up the most stuff, and who is the most 9/11.
Even in the case of Bradley, the Bradley effect wasn't an explanation. He forgot to appeal to his base, turning his back on the blacks of LA. The polls predicted the "usual" 20% turnout of South Central/Watts. It was 15%. He lost the bid for the governorship. Racism against Bradley was known and in the open.
Smellrat @ 57:
Kos, in spite of his great contributions, is just a little too much of a suck-up. He so badly wants to be considered legit. And the Firedoglake gals, as tough as they are, are a bit squeamish about digging under the surface of anything until it's deemed "safe" to do so.
Doggiebobo @ 60:
Did you click on my link? That's an awful lot of "coincidence" you're asking us to digest. Clinton supporter, by chance?
Emmit @ 59:
It's going to be hard enough for a Dem to clean up this mess beginning in 09 as it is but if the Neocons get in again we are totally SCREWED.
Emmit @ 64:
(1) Yep, and (2) Nope.
If there is no credible investigation and explanation of why the N.H. polls got it so wrong as to Hillary, if there is just semi-endless speculation and guessing, the American people will be set up for a replay of 2004, when exit polls said one thing, and supposed vote tallies said another.
My $0.02.
Emmit @ 59:
Has there been a post here and I just missed it about those Iranian speed boats coming too close to the US ships? I had to laugh last night when I heard the voice of one of the guys in the speed boats. It sounded like someone talking spooky on Halloween. The thing is the administration has lied to us about so many things that now I doubt everything they say. The boy has cried wolf too many times.
No wonder we doubt the truthiness of the voting machines and just about everything else in government.
"the Bradley Effect" LOL!!! Anyone who believes Hillary is not going to be the next Prez. has been watching too much cable news..I suppose Omaba will appear to be a contender in the interest of making for an interesting Campaign on the part of the media but this is not anything new in elections..Once The Clinton camp opens up their mighty war chest and Bill gets his Mojo going when he starts stump speaking Look out!!
Let me get this straight...Obama comes within 2 percentage points of a favorite and a long-time front runner in her neighboring state, and everybody in the MSM, and I mean everybody, calls this a "stunning upset." I probably would have written the headline...."Hillary barely hangs on." Never thought English would suddenly become a foreign language to me.
#64 - You didn't ask me but (1) no, I'm not going to click through 10 links, 1/2 of which are to some obscure web site full grandiose theories of electoral/political malfeasance and (2) I'm a supporter of whoever gets the Democratic nomination in November because that's the election that matters.
pissed off patricia @ 68:
POP: I believe you will agree that your comments in the last sentence is primarilly
applicable to the last 7 + years.
pissed off patricia @ 68:
8 minutes ago
JERUSALEM - President Bush warned Iran of "serious consequences" if it meddles again with U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, opening a Mideast peacemaking mission Wednesday on an ominous note.
oh jesus this is just horse hocky, clinton crys , politicians lie , these people arent we the people thier the haves and have mores , obama clinton the great hope of the working man, what the hell planet is this, its the corporations who they care about , you can take a hump at a flying kite as far as thier concerned, they live in thier own world where you cant go, and except for tricking you into voteing for them they have no use for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!at least edwards might do someting for us!!!!!
Disbelief in polls is good for criticising MSM.
It's also good for stealing elections.
I think it's the tweety effect. I don't think Democrats would vote against someone based on their race in a primary