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Dan Abrams with Pat Buchanan and Craig Crawford discuss the super delegates and how they may decide the nomination.
There are a total number of 4,049 Democratic delegates available in the presidential nominating process, making 2,025 the magic number for each candidate. If no candidate reaches the threshold in time, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have themselves a good ol’ fashioned brokered convention in Denver this August.
This seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, but after Super Tuesday, it may very well happen after all.
The reason is pretty straightforward: Obama has a slight edge in pledged delegates (Dems who vote in primaries and caucuses), while Clinton has a slight edge in superdelegates (lawmakers, governors, DNC members, establishment types). Taken together, they each have about 1,000 delegates. As Jonathan Cohn explained, it’s going to be tricky for either of them to get to 2,025.
In the remaining primaries and caucuses, only 1,787 delegates are at stake. So to win the nomination on pledged delegates alone, a candidate has to win 57 percent of those at stake. And that won’t be so easy to do.
Remember, the Democrats don’t have winner-take-all contests anymore. The primaries and caucuses award delegates with formulas that are based on proportional representation. In a situation where two candidates, each with solid funding, are running strong, it will be difficult to run up large margins. It’s entirely possible we’ll see a lot of results like last night, in which — after all the back-and-forth over who won which state — the two finished nearly even in delegates won.
Exactly. Neither one can put the other one away.
This not only means a brokered convention, it also means a dynamic in which superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee. Kevin and Ezra debate whether that’s good or bad.
No Trackbacks To “Bring on the brokered convention“
The nominee will be picked by the “establishment types”. So when we hear the word change try not to puke.
I saw this as well as other interviews with Crawford and Abrams. They’re both dead-on right about the MSM and its bias against the Clintons.
Good for these two guys!
So hundreds of millions spent and millions voted, and the boys in the back room pick Hillary.
Total effing bullshit.
Somebody on TV the other day compared the superdelegates to the British House of Lords. I’d say that’s a pretty apt comparison.
Vic @ 1:
Yep. Howard Dean wants them to “swing a deal” (wink, wink, nudge, nudge). Sounds like more of Republican politics.
Certainly we should listen to these guys as we all know things go down just like they predict
I find clips like this extremely frustrating — it’s definitely a topic that’s worth talking about, but the second anyone starts saying something interesting Abrams starts yelling and interrupts. This could have been such a great discussion but I learned next to nothing here.
I just read that a congressman from Minnesota has given his superdelegate vote to Obama because he wanted his vote to reflect the will of the people of Minnesota. I think if we see more of this type of behavior, the minds of the voters will be more at ease.
They were all talking over each other. that was so hard to listen to
If Hillary gets the nomination by virtue of superdelegates, I will abstain from voting in the general election. The “establishment” of the democratic party has shown time and time again that it is incompetent and consistently wrong. It wasn’t until the “grassroots” movement that the democratic party regained some of its stature and legitimacy.
Considering all those delegates Obamarama won at those “democrats for a day” caucuses are perfectly legitimate, superdelegates can counter those repubs who voted Obamarama at the caucuses but will certainly vote Mccain in November.
Just announced. Romney is out!
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I support neither Obama nor Clinton, however I think many will agree that Clinton cannot beat McCain in a general election. In a choice between two pre-emptive warriors, why wouldn’t Americans elect the bigger war monger of the two? Asking progressive Democrats to once again hold their noses and vote for the lesser of two evils - and one who has no intention whatsoever of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq in the forseeable future - seems like a stretch to me.
Can’t believe after the American public has expressed its desire to end the Iraq War that we could be facing a general election with Clinton v. McCain. That would certainly send a strong message to the world that the Empire has no intention of changing course.
Rep. Tim Walz, MN, give that man a seegar!
So this is how it will all unfold. Make it 2000/2004 close, then lay the blame on the superdelegates. Sheesh, and i thought there was still a chance for the late-great USA.
crowdpleaser @ 11:
Democrats for a day? Oh, you mean independents. Give me a break.
I saw an interview on super tuesday on msnbc with Chris Matthews. I can’t remember which superdelegate he was interviewing, but the superdelegate indicated that he would vote for whomever he wished even if his state voted the opposite. Chris Matthews responded, so, you don’t care what your constiuents want, you will just vote for who you want. The superdelegate hemmed and hawed and wouldn’t really answer the question.
That’s what pisses me off about superdelegates. That their entire state can support a candidate and they can vote the opposite. I find the whole system patronizing “Oh, silly voters, you don’t know what you want. Let us take care of this for you”.
I’d like to see more reporting on these Superdelegates… Good Job Abrams!
In the back room it’s not going to be, What will you do for the People?
It’s going to be, What will you do for G.E., big pharma, and the like (”the like” including the DLC)?
Mr. Pelicano @ 13:
That’s exactly the point. Americans don’t want to be in Iraq but as a country we couldn’t care less about sending any kind of “message to the world”…unless its “f*ck you”.
Besides “its the economy, stupid.”
Can anyone tell me how a brokered convention is not certain defeat? Really.
Hypothetical: If you are a Obama supporter and he goes in with a small lead, and the convention seats the Florida delegates and Clinton wins, are you going to support HRC? Or vice versa. I bet there would be a delegate walkout. And the walkout would be from the Democratic 08 campaign.
The sooner you realize that these TeeVee Clones (all sides of the spectrum) don’t really know what the hell they are talking about and have zero solutions for anything the sooner you will be free.
Vic @ 1:
LOLOLOL! Ohhh…who will win…WHO…WILL…WIN?!?!?
LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!
It’s the Constitution, stupid.
VietVet8666 @ 18:
In the back room…the People take it in the backside!
Smile and remember to say thank you.
It’s this simple:
- Barak can get everyone of Hillary’s voters and sustain the huge turnouts, Hillary CAN’T get everyone of Barak’s voters and sustain the large turnouts on election day. She’s reached her ceiling a month ago.
- If Hillary is the nominee, the Iraq War is off the table as a issue. The Republicans only have to repeat “You can’t be against something you voted for and do not regret even today” 10 million times.
- Hillary is a uniter: Of the Republican Party. The Republican party is about to split into three sections, if Hillary is the nominee, they will all unite and many Independents and Reagan Democrats will vote for McCain over the divisive Hillary.
Barak only needs to make a “electable” argument from this point forward to win the nomination. Hillary can’t make a electable argument against John McCain. And Barak shouldn’t put Hillary on his ticket if McCain is the nominee because he needs a STRONG military stance. A Baraka Obama/Jim Webb ticket would be UNSTOPPABLE!
BOTTOM LINE: I’m a registered Independent voter in Wisconsin and more than likely we will vote for Obama. If my vote is taken away because of super delegates or because Michigan and Florida are counted into Hillary’s totals, then I’m purposely voting Republican in the Fall. If she wins fair and square then that’s fine, but if she uses Republican tactics within her own party to secure the nomination then the Democratic party will implode!
Breaking News!!! Mutt has withdrawn!!!!!!
I don’t like the notion of super delegates one bit - if the state votes and strongly shows their preference, a superdelegate can still go against the wishes of his/her electorate and choose his/her preference. I’d just once like to see the popular vote be the decider. Otherwise, why should the average american vote?
Perhaps HRC could campaign against McCain by championing her Republican credentials. In many respects she is more of a “true” conservative than he is and, after all, she was a Goldwater Girl and defender of global multinational corporations - still does the latter, along with her Dem partner-in-crime, Chuck Schumer.
When all is said and done, there is only one mission for the two establishment parties: Defend the Empire at all costs.
Excuse me while I go tune my fiddle…
you’rekillingindependentgeorge @ 12:
yeah right, Zenu disapproves.
In November the people will be offered “lite”..
McCain - Democrat lite…more palatable to centrists.
Hillary - Republican lite…more palatable to centrists.
May he who is most centrist WIN!
“MEEET the new boss….da same as da old boss”
Tweety Matthews has always been at the top of my list of annoying, obnoxious a$$holes when it comes to interviews. But, Dan Abrams appears to be aggressively challenging Tweety for the honor of top dog in that category in this clip. What a nauseating jerk — actually threw my half-eaten panini at the t.v. screen watching this one.
I am going to vote for Edwards at my caucus.
CBS News just reported that Romney is suspending his campaign (but holding on to his delegates).
Liberal AND Proud @ 22:
Who will win is whoever “they” decide will win. I have come to realize that voting post 2000 is not only a joke. But an insult to any intelligent person with their head screwed on and brain fully functioning on it’s own.
So I will vote for the Pre-Packaged candidate of choice in Nov. Hang my head and look down upon leaving the voting facility, then think. . . Okay, who will they give us? Someone who will empower us to continue pursuing the great American Dream of isolating ourselves from each other.
If the voting produces a virtual tie, you need to have a tie-breaker of some sort. The presidential election goes to the house of representatives casting one vote per state; many local elections flip a coin or cut a deck of cards. There’s not need to get worked up over the super delegate system. The only other approach involves having the deal-makers trying to swing delegates around. Things always get weird when the electorate is evenly split. Florida would have been an ugly election no matter what, but if either Gore or Bush had been a full percentage point or two ahead, nobody would have cared (about the shoddy electoral process, anyway). You could come up with a series of objective (but possibly not relevant) tie-breaker criteria such as most-states-won, most-popular-votes, etc. I don’t know that this would make anybody happier: flipping a coin is fair, but …
Dean has to find a way to resolve this before the convention. There are hardly any “win” situations for the party in the hall. I see disaster and acrimony leading to McCain and a GOP pickup in the congress.
Liberal AND Proud @ 30:
And the corporations…smiled…and saw that it was good…and they bestowed upon the people…more corporate subsidies…outsourced jobs…higher prices…less healthcare…and the universe was serene…and the birds sang…
Conservatism is DEAD.
And already whinny pout widdle guy is saying he should get the super delegate, because he is the people’s choice…WFH? Who said he is the people’s choice. He is the choice of all the black people. And the youngesters who think he is Britney Spears. Oh I forgot the jelly ball men who are afraid to vote for a woman….you know who you are.
Americans about comfort and convenience. You can even swipe your credit card at the funeral home to pay for a funeral these days.
Liberal AND Proud @ 22:
A: It doesn’t matter. The Progressives are already gone. All that’s left are two corporate shills. The Sophie’s choice is between the despised woman or the inexperienced black guy.
Either way, we already shot ourselves in the foot.
Dr. Matt @ 38:
It’s always been dead. But they own the money unfortunately.
Yellowbird @ 32:
You ought to hope they don’t change the rules and location….when a lot of us seniors showed up to our cacucus they had been moved, consolidated they said. No chance to get transportation that time of night to a location 50 miles away….
Mittens is suspending his campaign
L.A. Confidential @ 42:
Huh?
L.A. Confidential @ 40:
And if you can’t pay that bill they can always dig you up and repossess your casket to salvage and sell as “used”.
not sure why you guys are happy that romney is out
now the great echo machine will shut it down vs mccain, knowing that their voices will be wasted
they will go into attack more against both hillary and obama
Marge @ 39:
Gee, Marge, what does that make me? I am a white over 30 woman.
I am sick of the “people are afraid to vote for a woman” crap. Get over yourself. Sexism is sexism in any form. I am not afraid to vote for a woman. I just REALLY don’t want to vote for this particular woman. Last time I checked there were plenty of powerful women holding elected offices throughout the US including the goddamn speaker of the house.
So, cut the crap.
Johnny2Bad @ 45:
Conservatism is an economic philosophy.
Your confusing conservatism with “pop conservatism”, the evangelicals and other nut cases the TeeVee feeds us 24/7 to keep us off balance and distracted.
you’rekillingindependentgeorge @ 12:
Dr. Matt @ 26:
pissed off patricia @ 44:
Yeah. We heard.
L.A. Confidential @ 40:
You can buy a casket at COSTCO…