The Pew Research Center’s latest report notes, “Trends in the opinions of America’s youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds.” If so, the winds are at Democrats’ backs, and will be for a quite a while. While young people shifted to the Democratic Party a bit in the 1990s, the bottom fell out for the GOP and younger voters during Bush’s presidency.
In 1992, Republicans enjoyed a slight edge in party identification among 18-29 year olds, 47% to 46%. Four years later, Democrats claimed a six-point edge, 50% to 44%. By the time of the 2000 election, Democrats’ lead had expanded slightly to eight points, 49% to 41%.
And voters under the age of 30 have been making a beeline from the Republican Party ever since. In 2004, Democrats’ lead among young voters’ party ID expanded to 11 points, 51% to 40%. And in 2008, the margin became a landslide — Democrats 58%, Republicans 33%.
What’s striking is not just the one-sided nature of young voters’ preferences, but the speed with which the change occurred. As recently as the 2002 midterms, voters aged 18 to 29 split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. In the 2006 midterms, they backed Democrats, 63% to 33%. Between 2004 and 2008, the party ID shift has more than doubled in Dems’ direction.
The change is also broadly based. From the Pew report:
In fact, the Democrats’ advantage among the young is now so broad-based that younger men as well as younger women favor the Democrats over the GOP — making their age category the only one in the electorate in which men are significantly more inclined to self-identify as Democrats rather than as Republicans.
While more women voters in every age group affiliate with the Democratic Party rather than the GOP, the gap is particularly striking among young women voters; more than twice as many women voters under age 30 identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party as favor the Republican Party (63% vs. 28%).
Talk about your emerging Democratic majority.
No Trackbacks To “The kids are alright“
Unfortunately, 63% of “I couldn’t be bothered to vote” is a lot less than 28% of “I vote every time”
YourMom @ 1:
i was gonna ask, did they mention how many plan on voting? “identifying” is great, but if they don’t act . . . well, then it doesn’t mean shit.
So seriously, while this sounds really nice the question remains:
Will they show up on the actual day when they have to vote? Or will they sleep late, get to work just on time, leave work at 5pm and be “too busy” to vote before the polls close?
I have a friend who if you were a pollster, rolled up onto her porch and asked her she’d tell you she’s a democrat, pro-choice, doesn’t dig on torture, yadda yadda yadda. But then just TRY to get her off her porch on election day, much less get her to register, and it’s like trying to pry a mussel off a rock. She’s mid-thirties, but she’s always been this way. I had to stop asking her about it every two years because she was literally getting angry, even though all I was asking her to do is exercise one of her rights as an American.
Not condemning all 18-30s, but I bet a lot of us have a similar story.
Great, now we can watch the Democratic party start wars. I was growing tired of the Republican wars.
Unless many of these 18-30 year olds get off their rumps and vote, we may see the same results as 2004. These are some of the most hurt by the last 8 years of Bush dumb-onomics and yet they are too lazy to vote? Come on people, wake the Hek up!
Right — The youth vote was supposed to carry the Democrats to victory in 2004. Then, of course, they didn’t turn out to vote.
I can’t see how anybody under 30 today can vote Republican.
What the **** has the GOP done since the late 90s *when you became old enough to be politically aware* that makes you want that.
To all the 18-25 year olds who are reading this:
PLEASE VOTE!!!
Hillarious
L.A. Confidential @ 9:
My comment?
Thanks for this. Gives me some reassurance that perhaps by 2012 the Dems will be back. 2008 not so sure now.
Marc @ 10:
Go ahead.
Jared Wolfhope @ 7:
I can’t see how anybody over 30 can vote Republican.
L.A. Confidential @ 12:
L.A. Confidential @ 12:
I missed your point, LA. Could you please explain?
Oh, gotcha. (just scrolled up).
Marc @ 15:
No it had nothing to do with your comment.
If Obama gets the nomination I think they will turn out and actually vote for him because they want to. If the nomination goes to Hillary I’m afraid many of them will lose interest.
Wish the Dems would get their act together and stop playing into Rove’s hand with their infighting. So self-destructive, isn’t it?!
speaking as a 20 year old male,
YEAH! at least in political science classes everyone votes…too bad I can’t say that about everyone
kg @ 20:
Thanks for your input,Kg.
Democratsrule @ 5:
Who’s president is the last thing on the minds of those who’s most pressing concern is partying, the latest video game, a plasma tv, and the latest youtube upload.
I’m one of that generation. Raised in a small Gulf Coast, Deep South, Southern Baptist Bush-Republican home, ended up a died-in-the-wool leftist in a decade. My parents are still Bush Republican, but I’ve realized since at least starting in ‘06 that the way we’re living is unsustainable. The conviction’s only grown.
Maybe we’ll luck out. Maybe the Neocons are too chicken to go into Iran.
We’ll just have to live with biceps flexing, chest puffing, and treasury dumping into the Defense racket until we go belly up.
young people today are by definition more liberal than my generation…for the most part they are more tolerant of our countries diversity, and with books like Howard Zinn’s People’s History of the United States used as textbooks, they can’t help being better for it!!
now lots of kids in my home town of Farmington (we kicked out our blacks in 1913) Missouri still wave the Confederate flag and
beat up “queers” in the locker room…they will be voting too!!
I think this changes as people get older and less idealistic. They see how things like taxes and government work..
marko @ 25:
Yes the beer-bleary multitudes are still out there.
Bonkers Hussein @ 3:
I don’t think it’s specific to younger voters.
“The kids are lazy” message is a bit of a stereotype in my opinion.
bitter kep306 @ 13:
I know what you mean…I can (just barely) vote democratic… I think I’m goin w/the Independent, Libertarian, or Constitution party…screw this (false) left/right paradigm propaganda shit.
I hope the younger ones look a little farther afield…than the Democrats
Without a doubt todays most neglected story.
Google Results 1 - 1 of 1
http://www.cnn.com/2008/BUSINE.....an.oil.ap/
L.A. Confidential @ 22:
Another generalization that proves ridiculous.
If you would have mentioned classes, then I could see a possibility.
PS: That story you linked is such a foreboding sign.
L.A. Confidential @ 29:
no doubt, good call.
Iran knows it!…the Federal Reserve dollar sucks.
I’d dump it too (if I could)
As a 21 year old, I can say that I’ve been trying to get a lot of the idiots of my generation aware of what’s going on, can’t say I’ve had much success yet, but I can tell you being able to speak knowledgable about politics, or anything for that matter, is a huge turn on for women ;)
Oh and LA Confidential, I think less and less of you every day man. Seriously!? We’re lazy, yet every single post on Crooks and Liars I browse through I see at least 5 comments by you, and it’s the same doom and gloom, defeatist BS… Seriously man, unplug for awhile. My generation is actually capable and knowledgable of more than you think.
The youth vote is the biggest reason why we need to keep this campaign positive and on real issues. Personal destruction politics will just drive them away and bring out Republicans.
PS Yes, we can and do party hard, but like every other generation, we know we have to work for the party. Keep in mind that my generation is the one that’s going to pay for your’s mistakes. We’re going to have to be the next greatest generation, and I don’t think many of us are ready for it, but we’re not all stupid…
Yeah, yeah, blah blah blah. But will they put down the “Grand Theft Auto IV” and go out and VOTE?!?
I remember the first time I voted. It was 1976 and I voted for Carter. I was 18 and had actually registered earlier in the year around the time of my birthday. I voted on my University campus, then went to classes. Later in the day I checked the results a few times, then that evening my roommate and I grabbed our skateboards (yes, kiddies, they made them back then too, and mine had Kryptonic wheels, Rad pads and was a Gordon and Smith Fiberflex!) and skated into downtown Richmond VA. to find the party at the Democratic headquarters. It was in a hotel (maybe the Jefferson?) and we walked in in our jeans and t-shirts with our boards. They looked at us like we were homeless bums but we identifies ourselves as registered Democrats and they parted the way and allowed us in. We ate and drank with the swells and watched the West Coast results. We then decided we should continue our evening and went to the Republican party in another hotel. The scene there was much quieter, and we just walked in and acted like we belonged there as well. We continued to eat and drink THEIR goodies, so, you see, there IS a way to marry the idea of getting involved in politics AND continuing to Party Hearty all the time! Just crash the party parties AFTER you vote!
L.A. Confidential @ 24:
I’d like to hope so L.A. but I have this strange feeling that George is going to order some sort of air attack on Iran days before leaving office. Sort of like leaving a flaming bag of dog shit on someones front porch. That someone is, of course, the next president. He clearly despises all candidates including McCain.
Most of us “grown ups” are Independents. We look at socialism vs Capitalism.
Things like that. Not whoes idea it was or Dems vs Repub. This is America.
It’s about keeping the govenment from micro managing your behavior or freedoms. Less Government, less taxes and more freedom to do what you want to do. Government is not the solution but the problem!
HW @ 37:
And if government isn’t sufficiently incompetent then you appoint a huge collection of otherwise unemployable idiots to mismanage everything, as the Republicans do, to prove that government is incompetent. That way you have the freedom to drown in New Orleans or die from lack of medical attention if disaster strikes your family. Socialism is strictly for Bear Sterns and other corporations not for citizens.
Most “Independents” don’t even understand what socialism and capitalism actually are. At least not with any level of sophistication. They’re buzzwords used to drive morons to vote for Republicans.
My son is 19 and the main topic of conversation for the past two years at our house was politics. I’m constantly sending him links to articles about issues and events that aren’t covered by MSM news - neither of us bother watching TV news anymore. Now he’s sending me things I’ve missed, since he went away to college. But he laments the fact that he has a hard time getting even what he considers intelligent people at school to get interested in what’s going on. Even though a draft would affect them all, and another war would definitely bring a draft back. Several of his friends from high school (we live in a small, rural town that was targeted by recruiters big time) are currently serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he hears from them about what’s going on over there. And still he can’t get very many people his age to listen. He was shocked to find out that many of them didn’t even know who Dick Cheney was, or had ever heard of Blackwater or Halliburton. But he’s still out there trying to get the word out so that his friends will vote. He’ll never give up - he knows that it’s going to take young people voicing their opposition to the policies being written by old men with nothing to lose to make anything change in our screwed up government.
Peter G @ 38:
Yes, if only the democrats could stop politicizing the war for one second and pass some sensible tax relief and deregulation for the industries which create America’s wealth and jobs . . . well, problem solved!
It’s funny (as in strange, not har har) that even with such a positive news item, the vast majority of the comments here are from older generations mocking the young for not voting enough, for being too lazy etc…
It sounds a awful lot like listening to parents talking about their teenagers.
Maybe we could get our heads out of our pessimistic asses (and by we, I mean you) and see this news item as a positive sign of change.
Even if this age group doesn’t vote as much (although 2008 is a long way from even 2004 so it’s possible to suppose that more “youth” will vote; but, then again, why think something positive when it is so painfully wonderful to indulge in negative thoughts), don’t you think that as they get older (and they do start voting more), we will be better off with an aging demographic that is so progressive?
There is a place for pessimism but about this?
ps. Global climate change is one obvious way to motivate actual votes from this demographic. All (well, most) signs point to this issue being the great uniter of the youth demographic (if not most demographics).
long live the internet
truth to power
accountability
Stalin’s Crayon @ 41:
Yes the fiasco in Iraq is clearly the fault of democrats (LOL). Despite the fact that corporations in the US already enjoy the lowest taxation rate in the western world and an incredible array of subsidies and exemptions it must be taxes that are the problem and not the disastrous economic mismanagement of the current administration. If the airlines, for example, were given a tax holiday fuel costs would still be driving them to bankruptcy.
“ps. Global climate change is one obvious way to motivate actual votes from this demographic. All (well, most) signs point to this issue being the great uniter of the youth demographic (if not most demographics). ”
AGW will take unity because it is no more than imperialsim from the EU created by the inventor of the internet AlGore. Billions of dollars in taxes will be added to everthing that need to reduce co2 emmisions. Additional 50 cents per gallon on auto fuel. That will be a great unifier!
Regarding corporations they are the engine of growth to the whole world.
70% of business are independents that pay taxes at the personal rate.
My husb