A flood of recent polls suggests the 2008 election will once again display the “Iron Law” of 21st century Republican presidential politics. That is, with Americans showing an overwhelming preference for Democratic positions across virtually the entire spectrum of issues, the GOP has to make the race about something else. This year as in 2000 and 2004, the Republicans will try to turn the race into a presidential personality contest. And to win it, they need to manufacture a “character gap” between John McCain and Barack Obama.
Two surveys in the past week show the Republicans’ dilemma. First, a new Rasmussen poll revealed that voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on each and every one of the 10 issues measured. Democrats enjoy double-digit advantages on the economy (50%-36%), government ethics (45%-26%), health care (54%-33%), Social Security (49%-36%), education (50%-35%), Iraq (50%-39%) and immigration (45%-35%). The GOP lags by smaller margins on national security, taxes and abortion.
Meanwhile, an ABC News/Washington Post poll similarly reflects the devastating impact for the GOP of Americans’ record-setting disapproval for President Bush and the direction of the country…With 82% of respondents now believing the U.S. has gone off the rails, Democrats have built a massive 21 point cushion (53%-32%) as the party Americans trust to “do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years.”
Those lopsided results are consistent with an April poll from Rasmussen which found that “election 2008 is creating record numbers of Democrats.” The results showed a 10-point Democratic advantage in party identification (41.4% to 31.4%), almost double the margin one year earlier. That delta is unprecedented:
“In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.”
The calculus is simple. If Americans vote the issues, Republicans lose. Which is why character matters more than policy to the Republican faithful.
In early May, yet another Rasmussen survey showed that by a 52% to 36% margin, Americans contend that a candidate’s policies on the issues matter more than his or her character. Unsurprisingly, given Americans’ clear support for Democratic positions and priorities, Republicans instead responded that character counts most.
The Rasmussen findings show a sharp partisan cleavage over the importance of candidate’s policies versus character. By a two-to-one margin, Democrats said policy positions matter most. But Republican respondents argued the reverse, with character trumping issues by 49% to 43%. Among independents, policy proposals rank as more important, by 49% to 32%. As a result, the Rasmussen poll like the later ABC/WaPo survey showed a dramatic advantage for the Democratic Party in a generic presidential match-up:
“The survey found that 48% of the nation’s adults are inclined to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate while 34% prefer a Republican.”
Which is precisely why the Republican Party cannot let the 2008 election be about the issues.
As Rasmussen suggests, thus far the GOP has been very successful in converting the White House race into a personality contest in which the supposed maverick John McCain is amazingly competitive at a time of almost universal disdain for his party and its policies:
“In fact, one of the most significant stories so far in Election 2008 is the way that John McCain significantly outperforms the Republican brand. On a series of key issues, the Democrats are trusted more than the GOP but McCain is trusted more than either Democrat.”
As I noted recently, John McCain has been the beneficiary of both the bitter (and endless) Democratic race and the seeming imperviousness of the media’s McCain maverick myth. For example, on the economy, Americans prefer Democrats over Republicans by 48% to 40%. Yet in head-to-head matchups, voters say they trust John McCain over both Hillary Clinton (47% to 42%) and Barack Obama (46% to 39%). Despite John McCain’s repeated admissions that “the issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should,” right now Americans trust him more than his Democratic rivals on the issue they consider most important in 2008. On Iraq, national security and taxes as well, McCain is also seen as more trustworthy. Even with the albatross of a disrespected Republican president and a discredited GOP brand, John McCain may be winning the character war.
Sadly, we’ve been here before. The 2000 and 2004 exit polls clearly show the Republican Party succeeded both in portraying the presidential contest as being about character and in defining the accepted media narrative for candidates Bush, Gore and Kerry. Eight years ago, 24% of voters claimed being “honest/trustworthy” was the quality that mattered most; among them, George W. Bush trounced Al Gore by 80% to 15%. In 2004, Bush walloped the supposed flip-flopper John Kerry by 70% to 29% among those claiming honesty was the most important presidential attribute. Among those wanting a “strong leader,” Bush swamped Kerry by a staggering 75 points.
In his 2007 book The Big Con, Jonathan Chait described how Republicans consistently win elections despite almost universal disdain for their policies among the American people. In a nutshell, Chait argues that Republicans must convert elections into contests of character because they simply can’t win on issues. While their man, be it George W. Bush or John McCain, is the “authentic” guy you’d “like to have a beer with,” the GOP drives the media conventional wisdom that paints the likes of Al Gore, John Kerry and now Barack Obama as effete, out-of-touch elitists whose positions change with the wind:
“Media outlets functionally affiliated with the Republican Party have been able to create news that makes its way into the nonpartisan media. It is a kind of machine that manufactures images of character.
The Republicans’ seminal insight was that the random process by which small events come to wield great symbolic insight into the character of presidential candidates didn’t have to be random. It was possible to prime the pump, in a way.” (p.169)
The data is clear. If the election is about the economy, health care and Iraq, John McCain cannot become the 44th president. Only if the GOP succeeds once again in transforming the race into a media medley about lapel pins, angry ministers and Muslim-sounding middle names can the Republicans hope to maintain their hold on the White House.
The right-wing media machine is already hard at work on producing the 2008 version of the character gap. The supposed elitism of Barack Obama (and not the perpetually out-of-touch John McCain) has already emerged as an indispensable, if demonstrably false, conservative story line. In Monday’s New York Times, Bill Kristol extolled McCain’s “exceptionalism.” Meanwhile, uber lobbyist and McCain senior adviser Charlie Black now labels his man “slightly right of center” after just weeks ago airing a McCain television spot titled, “True Conservative.” No doubt, McCain’s move to the center and away from his president and his party is well underway.
All the more reason why the Democratic Party needs to move beyond its interminable nominating process and begin the demolition of John McCain’s maverick myth. To win the war for the White House, Democrats need to win the battles for Americans’ hearts - and minds.
Filed Under: Barack Obama, GOP, John McCain, McCain’s Media, Republican Party
Tags: Barack Obama, GOP, John McCain, Republican Party
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So…the GOP slogans will be “Vote for Grandpa, he’s a nice man” and “Don’t vote for the inexperienced guy with the mouthy wife, besides….he’s black”.
Barack better get a base-ball sized chrome lapel pin with florescent lights, sparklers, and bottle rockets.
Walter Sobcek @ 2:
Why? So Grandpa will be able to see him during the debates?
Oh please- the GOP is dead in the water- the only place for distraction of facts and irrelevancies is the race card- which will be played to the hilt. Obama will be easily distracted with stupid issues like negative comments regarding his wife and other idiotic distractions all designed to keep the people from seeing the real game which is being played by the elite.
He is playing right into their hands and will make the republicans actually appear less distracted and more mature.
It is amazing just how stupid the American public is and how much more stupid and easily played are the new crew of empty headed blow hard politicians.
This isn’t even interesting enough to make me sick anymore.
In fact, he should start his own fashion scandal. He can start wearing an American flag arm band. “where’s your arm band, McCain?” Or maybe a bandanna.
Character gap?
There’s a big one… Obama has character, but McCain is a caricature.
“Character Gap”??? Why not just call it what it is - an “Appeal to Racism”?
Darrell Kern @ 4:
Yep, the majority of registered voters are ignorant and dumbf…., so regardless
what polls show, the Dems will probably find a way to screw up the Nov. elections
and permit the Repugs to win again. Hope not, but with all the bitterness within
the Dem Party between Obama and Hillary, it would not be a great surprise to see
them blow it again.
JOhn McCain is going to run on his personality ?…….. i predict a landslide victory to his opponent :)
Let me tell you how this is going to go down.
For the Democrats it’s developing into a perfect storm.
- A reviled president, an incompetent and corrupt administration, a hugely unpopular war and the economy in recession.
- A young, charismatic and intelligent candidate for the Democrats with no political baggage and a young, vibrant intelligent wife. A campaign that’s awash with cash and people keep on giving – even business sectors that went for Bush big time in 2000.
- An old, out-of-touch, adulterous Washington insider for the Republican candidate with a violent temper, lots of issues he would rather we all forget, married to a remote, icy millionairess with a pathological sense of privacy.
- A congress that fails to pass major legislation because (and this is the only reason) the republican minority uses any procedural tactic they can to block everything.
- A populace that has finally realised that the 2000 election was stolen, the last eight years have been misery and that’s what you get if you don’t get out and vote. They don’t trust what the MSM says anymore (Stephanopoulos – you’re fired) and they’re more energised and alert.
Now all Republicans running for election are now vulnerable.
Republicans will become an endangered species in the House and the Democrats will have a veto-proof majority in the Senate.
An amusing footnote - Lieberman’s career will be over.
I hope that in the general election Obama is able to continue to respond to asinine and banal attacks of a trivial nature with the same poise that he has in the primary.
andy @ 9:
Perhaps he can borrow some from Lieberman. :-)
I predict a landslide victory no matter what. The Republicans already lost this election.
Yeah, right.
This will literally be a black and white contest.
I sneer at the thought of 2008 being a “race”, as the stinking republican party has brought this country to its knees, perhaps mortally wounding it. Nobody in their right mind would vote for another 4 years of generic Bush.
Grampa is a neo-con, an old-fart, warring son-of-a-bitch, and his party has to manufacture a way of stealing this election, too. They can’t win fairly; they must resort to theft, distraction, caging, trickery, and law-breaking.
The Dems need to focus on war profiteering, lying the country into war, New Orleans, the elite 2% at the top, the destruction of the middle class, the health insurance industry’s raping of our healthcare dollars/system, and among other things, Big Oil’s rule over this country.
Forget character. Grampa IS the problem of the hellish last 8 years. Focus, focus, focus!
“Democrats enjoy double-digit advantages on the economy (50%-36%), government ethics (45%-26%), health care (54%-33%), Social Security (49%-36%), education (50%-35%), Iraq (50%-39%) and immigration (45%-35%). The GOP lags by smaller margins on national security, taxes and abortion.”
Someone PLEASE explain to me how Republickers, in all seriousness, can get ANY numbers above the ignorant/whacko 25% after the last 8 years!
Seriously.
IS there something wrong with Americans?
Observances and explanations welcome as it continually BLOWS my mind there aren’t already screams for their, the cabal, heads.
they can reach into their bag of tricks, play every rotten card they have, but the american people for the first time in a LONG time see a light at the end of a tunnel made of blood and corruption and hate and fear
we are tired of being scared
tired of being lied to
tired of being played
Darrell Kern @ 4:
I’m always surprised when I see people make exaggerated statements like this about people. I can’t think of any of his previous actions that would lead me to believe he will be distracted and play into Republicans’ hands. I don’t know if you’re underestimating Obama or overestimating the Republicans.
The media has Mccain on life support.
He’s DOA in the general…
The MR.Magoo of foreign policy experience still does NOT know who OR WHERE the enemy is…is it sunni…no…shia…no…Iraq…no…Iran…no…Saddam…no…
The Mr. Magoo of economy.
The Mr. Magoo of healthcare.
The Mr. Magoo of social security.
The Mr. Magoo of minimum wage increases.
The Mr. Magoo of equal pay for women.
Vote John Magoo.
The change you deserve???
Too bad MSM can’t cover for him in the upcoming debates like they have during the primary!
Gee,
Why don’t we all just throw up a white flag, and bow down to the mighty John McCain?
/Snark/
Look, John McCain’s character isn’t too much better than his stance on the issues. I believe that if it got to a debate, Obama would smoke his sorry butt with his grace and eloquence. As for the media, people just have to stop taking its word as gospel. I mean, I read the paper (Chicago Tribune) business section every day, and every day they try to downplay the economic problems this country faces. Economic problems that people see in their attempt to buy food and gas. So it’s going to take much more than “I like to share a beer with this guy” to get some people to vote for John McCain.
oh, it is going to be a “character gap”, this time.
i had my bets on another pointless, distracting and insulting salvo into the “culture war”
anything to distract the voters from the fact that the GOP/dem centrist economic policies and foriegn policy has kneecapped america, our economy, our future, our ’standing’ and our environment. anything to keep the people from realizing that the corporatist party (D-R) has sold our future on the “free” market, losing our shirts in the process.
but, sure, yeah, ‘character gap’, i bet the msm will eat this up like chocolate num-nums.
2012: the end…. ?
Blue Lensman @ 7:
Exactly. All McCain needs to do is emphasize all the negative stereotypes about Muslims blacks and democrats.
MSM MODERATOR: Senator McCain, would you care to comment on the economy?
MCCAIN: MY OPPONENT IS A LIBRUL!
MSM MODERATOR: Senator McCain, would you care to comment on healthcare?
MCCAIN: MY OPPONENT IS A MUSLIM!
MSM MODERATOR: I see. Can you comment on the war in Iraq?
MCCAIN: MY OPPONENT IS A N&&&&R!
MSM MODERATOR: Well, there you have it folks! Vote McCain and you’ll get a White Anglo Saxon Protestant in the white house, as it should be.
“I’d like to share a cell with John McCain.”
G.W.Bush
StevePam @ 17:
They can’t?
Uhh hemm…
Timmeh: “Senator Obama, Hillary Clinton questioned your foreign policy credentials, particularly with regard to your willingness to talk to terrorist regimes. It’s been said that your approach is borderline if not outright appeasement. So, my question Senator, is….why do you hate the troops?
Timmeh: “Senator McCain, sir, we all know of your service to our country, and we thank you for it. We know that this has given you insight into war that many in the present generation cannot appreciate, and probably does position you best in terms of foreign policy. Having said all that, sir..can you answer for me…what is the address of the White House?
I’m not quite ready to be calm and unworried about Obama’s chances just yet, although I’m feeling better seeing how he’s handled all of this “appeaser” BS recently.
The McCain packaging is nice, real nice. War hero, maverick, patriot, etc, etc. Just the kind of John Wayne crap the public eats up. But McCain himself is a flaming doofus and can barely string a coherent sentence together without a teleprompter and Lieberman whispering in his ear.
Obama, on the other hand, is a little light in the steak department, but man, has he got a lot of sizzle. Maybe he doesn’t come off as well on paper, but put the two of them on stage together, and sit back with popcorn to watch the old geezer bloodbath begin.
Come to think of it, Obama is the kind of candidate I would be pissed to see the GOP putting forward (not that they ever would) - all the flair but with some real potential gaps in substance. I’m just kind of hoping the electoral shoe will be on the other foot this year.
Just wait till the Military Industrial Complex strikes Iran!!!
The mindless American population will once again gleefully wave their flags and elect McCain unless Bush declares a national emergency.
the fight to get cindy mccain’s tax returns must be won.
i am amazed at how many “regular people” have absolutely no idea that he is married to THAT kind of wealth. when i’ve had an opportunity to inform people about the amount of money she’s sitting on, the reaction i’ve seen is palpable, it’s like they’ve been struck by a lightning bolt — he is no longer simply “a good soldier,” he is instead just another guy trying to pull wool over their eyes.
GOP will try everything. I suppose they’ll try to present Obama supporters as baby sacrificing “Molech” Obama loonies to their fundamentalist base.
http://tinyurl.com/5hndq4
There’s a gap all right. jeepers.
If you want eight more years of dying because they’re stupid, help yourself to the all you can eat smorgasbord of lying, cheating, robbing, torturing, warmongering you want.
McBush - what’s in your wallet?
Until the MSM stops treating McSame as the kind old grandpa , there will always be doubts in average joe voters mind about Obama.
Character Gap???
Tell me McSame, when did Barak Obama EVER force people from their homes and relocated them on a Superfund clean up site?????
http://www.cain2008.org/
http://www.culturekitchen.com/....._dineh_nav
Character? John McCain wants to run on his character? Usually, when we praise a man’s character we mention traits like courage in the face of adversity (remember the hanoi hilton video?), or steadfastness of opinion (what position hasn’t he reversed and then reversed again), or loyalty to friends (has he got any? I mean any that haven’t bought him), or patience in disagreement (ha-ha), or probity in financial dealings (cheating 5, anyone? And why, exactly, won‘t his wife let him handle the money?), or true in love (In this McCain is a little complicated as he is sexually attracted to women but romantically involved with men, hence his lieber-love and bush-crush. Something to do with Daddy. He shares this trait with most of the pundits we are saddled with, btw.) . That is a person of good character is honest, brave and wise. Those words will never describe John McCain.
Character Gap???
Tell me McSame, when did Barak Obama EVER force people from their homes and relocated them on a Superfund clean up site?????
McCain is sounding like a parody of himself, which is actually a parody of SNL….but when you’re talking to Florida Cubans I guess there’s no such thing as semantic excess….just appearing ridiculous. Forget “The Hug”, my friends, it’s “The Kiss”!!!:
(AP):The Arizona senator recalled the ridicule President Carter faced in 1979 when he kissed Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev during the signing of an arms treaty.
“Carter went over and kissed Brezhnev, remember?” McCain said Tuesday in Miami. “So it’s dangerous; it’s dangerous to American national security if you sit down and give respect and prestige to leaders of countries that are bent on your destruction or the destruction of other countries. I won’t do it, my friends.”
A woman in the audience applauded McCain’s position: “For that, believe me, Florida will be yours,” Ninoska Perez Castellon told McCain. She is a radio commentator for the anti-Castro station Radio Mambi.
Darrell Kern @ 4:
The PROPHET DARRELL has spoken! all hail his mystifying foresight and wisdom! Perhaps with enough canoodling, we can convince this man to build a site on the intertoobs so we can avoid the wasteland of C&L comment threads and go directly to the source for the deep understanding of social constructs we all crave and he generously provides.
Don @ 32:
Then why did he hug Bush?
of the remaining 18%
1% are actualy doing better
17% are clinging to delusions or hatreds