Can Obama Redraw the Map?
By SilentPatriot Tuesday Jun 17, 2008 5:55pm
(image from HuffPo)
A fascinating article over at Progress Illinois breaks down how Obama's massive 50-state voter registration drive has the ability to completely change the map in November. Using projections from fivethirtyeight.com's remarkably accurate Poblano, PI proves that moderate boosts in three key demographics -- African-Americans, Latinos and 18-24 year olds -- could result in huge electoral hauls; somewhere on the order of 300+ electoral votes.
If it sounds like a tall order, that's because it is. But the numbers don't lie and a hugely successful registration drive has the ability to register literally millions of new voters and catch the GOP completely off-guard. The entire article is worth the read, but here is what the article's author refers to as "The Full Monty":
The first, titled the “40/20 Plan,” increases the youth vote by 40 percent and the African-American vote by 20 percent, while keeping the Latino vote at the 2004 level. The “40/30/20 Plan” projects a 40 percent increase among 18-24 year-olds, a 30 percent increase among Latinos, and a 20 percent in increase in the black vote. Finally comes the “Best Case Scenario,” which assumes a 40 percent increase among African-Americans and a 50 percent increase in both the youth and Latino vote nationally.
The “40/20 Plan” alone increases Obama’s chances of winning from 49.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The “40/30/20 Plan,” meanwhile, lifts this probability over 70 percent.
“If Obama wins [Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan], he’s going to have a tough time losing anyway,” Poblano said. “But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio – if you’re winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it’s a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election.”
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Gobama!
Now that's what I call a strategy.
Theres no stopping this guy. I reserved kegs for Nov 4th.
get hillary to campaign florida,ohio and pennsylvania.....webb and gore in virginia,kentucky,tennesee....even get biden out there as the bulldawg
Yeah, but how do we get more dems in the senate??? Until we have 60+, no real change begin.
Here's what I want to know: In the VERY LIKELY event that the Bush administration invokes an "October Surprise" in the form of (unfortunately and surprisingly legal) suspended elections, does the Obama camp have a contingency plan for that scenario?
Uh.... Since the GOP has people tracking such blogs as this, they will definitely not be caught "completely off-guard."
But the factor that isn't considered is how many voters will be removed in states that manage to pass a voter ID law. I'm thinking that based on recent events it hits elderly voters the most and they tend to favor McCain. On the other hand there is the typical voters purge by Republicans that target minorities. In my state the Republican Secretary of State has drastically cut the number of polling locations despite increased voter turnout.
I expect to see some states go to McCain that should have gone to Obama had the election been fair. Republicans can't win in a fair election.
Don't count on the youth vote.
"We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything. SEN. BARACK OBAMA:
Let's go for eighty or ninety. I don't trust the electoral process anymore.
Feels overly optimistic.
Let's not forget, this country is crawling with rednecks. Ignorant morons who are completely gullible when confronted with the GOP's typical bullshit. Flag pins, salutes and unbridled patriotism play quite well with this low IQ crowd. From now until November, McSame will be photographed in front of countless flags and fighter jets...and there's an excellent chance it will work.
Never "misunderestimate" the stupidity of the public. Hell, look who's been in charge for the past eight years. This is a country packed with idiots and McSame is appealing to them.
You bet that there will be cheating and election fraud on the part of the Republican opposition this coming November, and I think that Obama will need a significant majority to overcome this.
The Truth Hurts @ 12:
I can't disagree but, the real stupid ones are the pundits that start the B.S. If there is a revolution, they should be the first targets.
Except for the old southern confederacy, I think McInsane is cooked!
Hell, after 8 years of GW Bush, Paulie Schorr could redraw the map if he was running against McCain.
oompapa48 @ 3:
If he does it, I'm going to brave dealing with homeland moron security again to get across the border and go to San Fran for the party I think.
Doug @ 8:
i think your correct..that's why i hope to volunteer some of my time i believe it can make a difference i wanted to believe that cheating didn't happen but...that's not the way it is...they will cheat
How to get more Democrats in the Senate... volunteer outside the polls and hand out flyers or palm cards listing Obama at the top and then all the down ticket people that are running. Talk to voters before they go into vote and ask them to vote for the Democrat that is running for the Senate and the House and remind the voter that Barack Obama will need a Democratic Congress in order to make CHANGE happen. You would be surprised how friendly voters can be. Set up a table and chair, place some candies and some other little snacks or give aways from the local candidates (nail files are a big item) on the table... set up a welcoming environment when you speak with the voters. The Democrats will be happy to see you and even the Republicans that support Obama may even stop by and chat.
Just want to say that I once heard a politician speak about getting votes. This politician said that he asked someone why they didn't vote for him and the answer was "you didn't ask for my vote". Every since I heard that statement from the politician, I ask people to vote for the candidates that I support.
I like the sound of that plan.
This would make it much harder for the Rethugs to steal the election. But where there's a will there's a way to disenfranchise voting blocks and flip ballots.
Attila the Appeaser, Trollop Despot @ 9:
That is true. If you know any youths make sure youget them out to vote. And tell them to tell their friends. Damn it!
Scarabus @ 7:
then they fall for our cunning plan,
plus they get a healthy does of reality and monitors require rotation and weeks of rehab to get back into the Reslug way of thinking.
spare a thought for the poor GOP trolls that suffer from blog PTSD.
NoGWBpolicyleftinplace @ 15:
You mean the McGramps has the souther bigot vote locked up?
Captain Obama’s Bitter Half Husein Kangaroo @ 24:
evangelical fundie xtains for McWife-Abandoning workshy gambling playboy.
has a certain ring to it on a button down south
Paul @ 6:
This is something Dem Senators should have had in mind when Kucinich brought up impeachment. Hopefully they'll keep THAT in Bush's little brain, and can whip it out when he quickens the drumbeat to another war.
Plans A, B, and C??? Wow! The rethugs have had only one plan for the past 40 years(fear mongering on gays, abortion, immigrants and national security) with absolutely NO backup plan. They are SO toast!
Attila the Appeaser, Trollop Despot @ 9:
Why? In 2004 it was 18-29 year olds like myself who showed up in record numbers, and we were the only age demographic that went overwhelmingly for Kerry. It's the rest of you old farts that voted for Bush.
dont count on the young farts voteing ,they are all out getting high and looking for that free piece of arse!
bushflipflops @ 28:
I read the papers and what your stats are right. However, I am OLD and I voted for and worked for the Kerry campaign.
Paul @ 6:
Possible, but just one more thing to hurt the Republican "brand." It'll just strengthen resolve.
Another thing: I dont get why CO is dark blue on this map. Yeah, they got Boulder, but that gets more than cancelled out with Colorado Springs.
Obama is the MAp
were all tired of 8 years of BUSh and freinds
Applebee's Salad Bar Boy (Hussein) @ 31:
McCain WILL drop out of the race om August of September. Just you watch.
Then the republicans will put forth their REAL candidate. I'm willing to bet it's Jeb Bush and Bloomberg.
Remember that while most of the republican scum are morally bankrupt idiots, they do have a few schemers on their team. It's probably the only way they can win.
Read the following article to see what I'm talking about.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_10...
Hmmmmm.....what a lovely color map.
Numinous @ 34:
ive been saying this for months now! mccains a throw away prick!but no body listens , people here got no imagination!
God I hope this is the case. A landslide victory in November would be a dream come true.
tyree @ 36:
That's correct! McCain is a THROWAWAY CANDIDATE! People, wake up!
I'm telling you right now, get ready. The republican's are going to try something, and new candidates are the most likely move they will try.
McCain is toast. He's DONE. The republican's already know that.
They are going to pull another presidential candidate out of their hates. It's most likely going to be another Bush.
The hayseeds will eat that up.
Of course this all assumes that all those votes by all those new voters will actually be counted. We already know what the electoral map looks like when there aren't enough voting machines, or the machines break down, or the votes mysteriously get flipped, or the voter "makes a mistake."
social democrat @ 39:
Good point. It would be interesting to see the "States That Use Diebold Voting Machines" overlay on the map.
Different Anonymous @ 40:
YES - can someone do this? i'd like to see that very much.
Let's all do what we can to make this set of circumstances a reality.
bushflipflops @ 28:
We old farts are Very sorry. Please accept our apologies.
On the other hand, I am very encouraged when I see in every poll that the young people today are over 70% democratic and liberal! It gives me hope for the future.
During my parents and grandparents day, the repukes where a 29% party. Funny how Dumbya's approval continually hovers around 28%? Maybe that's the limit for intelligence in America? No matter how bad things get, or how incompetent, stupid and evil a politician is, 28% of the country is so cluelessly stupid, that they will still support them.
Numinous @ 34:
Jeb Bush? Bring it on! He would get fried worse than McInsane!
Safe to say, the Bush family crime syndicate "brand" is finished in American politics on the national level. Their name will be synonymous with Benedict Arnold's in the annals of presidential history!
At the rate Obama moves in the polls and the way McCain is nose-diving to defeat (hiding his Navy record, Iseman, etc), he might win the entire damn map, including AZ (except KY, they're hopeless so they don't count).
The current polls put him ahead above margin of error in OH, PA, and even FL.
Now the only question is how far will he pretend-drift to the center to win those independents.
This is great news, but beside winning the vote, the Democratic Party also has to win the count of the votes. Can anyone accurately predict that, when the voters not deleted from the rolls vote, their vote will actually be counted?
What is the state of the voting technology across the country?
How can anyone seriously support Obama? They guy has zero experience, no real plan for change...I challenge anyone to tell me EXACTLY what he is going to change and "everything" does not count as an answer...Has never taken a stand on anything (voted present 95% of the time), never held a real job, let's not even get started on the whole Wright thing and the list goes on and on but you all love this clown. Don't get me wrong McCain is a schmo to, but hell at least he has experience. Face it Hillary WAS and IS the best choice, but you all like shiny things instead of substance.
I am glad you are all fired up and will vote, but no one and I mean now one has successfully answered any of the aforementioned issues. BTW what is the big deal about his birth certificate and Michelle's thesis, why will they not release this basic info?? Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but seriously, Obama???Four more years of a new moron...Flame away, but you know I am right.
47 seriously , common sense , intelligence and honesty is a helluva lot more important than experience , and experienced at what ? You ever ask yourself that question ? Experienced at being a political whore , a prostitute for the corporations , lobbyists , special interest and the war machine and playing the game in DC ? They were laying the same BS on John F Kennedy when he ran for the Presidency , too young , inexperienced . McCain doesn't know what his name is anymore , his ignorance and apparent confusion on the issues and on exactly where the hell he stands is astounding and Clinton's " thirty five years of experience " was simply a crock . You want to know " exactly " yet you spout of a bunch of generalities that are simply bullshit , get real . You sound more like a Repug .
The only problem is that Ohio is still ass-end crooked when it comes to elections.
HEAVEN is a BLUE STATE
HELL is a RED STATE
PURGATORY is a PURPLE STATE
Seriously, even if the Dems won sweeping veto-proof filibuster proof majorities, do you really beleive they would suddenly grow a back bone? Repeal the Patriot Act? Bring back Habeas Corpus? Hold members of the Bush Administration to account?
Any of that?
No, they won't.
They will stand before the world like the impotent Republican-lite party that they are.
the repugs can't rig this election enough to win, and they won't suspend it. problem is, election doesn't mean immediate inauguration. so wait for the "next big attack on american soil" between november and january. all the "emergency/contingency laws" got passed last year. dubya will join dick in his undisclosed location and continue to f*ck the country until the war on terror is won. ahem.
NoGWBpolicyleftinplace @ 15:
I'm hoping that many voters in conservative states will stay home, or vote third party. McCain never has had much support among the far right.
seriously @ 47:
The time may have arrived for you to talk about your Hillary "issue" with a professional. Serioulsly!
There is a michigan primary ballot on E-bay and I wonder if the delegates will take note of it?
item number 200232971698
The current admin is full of people with some heavy crimes hanging over their heads. I fear they will try something to prevent Obama taking office. They are ruthless and scared, as their lying a$$es should be.
seriously @ 47:
Seriously, what ?
How can anyone NOT support Obama, or at least CHANGE and a different party and a breath of fresh air from politics as usual ?
What does the opposition offer ?
More of the same ?
We think not !
Fortunately, voters like us will FAR outweigh voters like you.
Obama '08 !
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