It’s not just that Barack Obama keeps winning primaries and caucuses. And it’s not just the sizable margins of his victories. What’s really disconcerting for the Clinton campaign right now is how — and with whom — Obama is getting ahead.
Obama won the Wisconsin primary by stealing support from blue-collar workers, previously a key Clinton bloc.
If Clinton was to survive the string of February losses, it was going to be by holding on to what her chief strategist, Mark Penn, has called her “durable coalition.” White women, Latinos, and older voters would be unmoved by Obama’s flash. No group was more crucial to the Penn argument than blue-collar voters. Clinton aides argued that not only were bedrock Democratic voters for Clinton, but they had an aversion to Obama. “How can the Democratic nominee win without working people?” asked a top Clinton adviser recently.
In Wisconsin, according to exit polls, Obama placed ahead of Clinton among those who make less than $50,000 a year and among those with less than a college education. He has now won working-class white men in Wisconsin, Missouri, New Hampshire, California, Maryland, and Virginia. Obama also ate into Clinton’s usual margin with white women voters.
Any reasonable comeback scenario for Clinton includes a very strong showing among blue-collar voters. In fact, the same way Texas and Ohio are firewall states for Clinton, this is a firewall constituency for her. And yet, it looks like a firewall that is slowly starting to crumble.
Other items of interest from the exit polls:
He split white women, marking about a 10-point improvement since early February. He also won half of married women, and even won single women. Obama took six in ten white men, a demographic that has shifted between the two candidates throughout the race. His white male support also marked about a 10-point improvement since Super Tuesday.
Regionally, the news was no better for Clinton. Obama won a majority of suburban voters, something Clinton did on Super Tuesday. He split rural voters, whom Clinton had won by about 20 points two weeks ago. Clinton also had won a slight majority of urban voters then. Obama won Wisconsin city dwellers by about a two to one ratio. […]
Obama won independents by a two to one ratio, which amounted to one in four voters. Obama won every philosophical persuasion of Democrat. Those who identified as “very liberal” to “somewhat conservative” voted for the Illinois senator. Half the electorate were liberal and Obama won them by double digits. The largest share of voters, though, identified as moderates. And Obama won a clear majority of their support.
The lone bright spot for the New York senator? She won seniors, again, who have become her most reliable backers.
No Trackbacks To “White men can jump — to Obama“
This may sound heretical, but Barack (or Hillary) Should Just Say NO, To Public Financing!
Bring on Texas, Ohio, yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaah, oh, wait a sec……
You just totally “plagiarized” MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell.
After viewing last night’s speeches, it is becoming painfully obvious that Hillary Clinton must dredge up some grace and humility soon toward Senator Obama, or she will become the political equivalent of an ingrown toenail. I was looking forward to feeling pride for a woman candidate, but if she is this discourteous toward a fellow Democrat, how will her lack of diplomacy translate to rectifying American foreign policy?
Meanwhile, Senator Obama is looking more and more like the one who can unite the country and restore habeas corpus, end torture, and promote the rights of working families.
Clinton + Presidency = NAFTA
Blue Collar Jobs ÷ NAFTA= Obama Votes
Don Davis @ 1:
McCain is setting a trap if Obama accepts. There is no guarantee that Swift Boat adds, or outsider adds would be off limits or not, leaving Obama cash strapped for defend against swift boating.
Obamamania @ 2:
Yay, you got it!
But seriously, I don’t see much movement for Clinton here in TX. The only thing I see going for her are her TV ads.
But that’s of course among the young, college-aged crowd.
I’m sorry but NAFTA came back to bite her in the ass. Doesn’t matter if it was her husband who pushed it through, either. It also doesn’t matter if she was against NAFTA - in her “35 years of experience” she has shown she is the ultimate corporate lackey and if anyone would have been moved by her experience, it would have been people in Wisconsin.
I think Ohio gets stolen again…but Texas may be another story.
I don’t care who gets nominated. I’ll vote for either, gladly. On March 4th, I’ll flip a coin. Whatever. My concern is for the Supreme Court and it should be a big concern for people, instead of this sports team mentality that I’ve seen on both sides of this race. I’m sick of the petulant breath-holding.
McCain knows he has to sell his image to non white, non wealthy voters who believe that further tax reductions for his white-wealthy constituents is the answer to all of our economic problems.
Senator,you might want to try an all you can eat buffet, because the people that you need are really truly hurting, and a free meal may be the only good thing to happen to a family living on the edge of despair and ruin.
kablooie @ 4:
Those are my thoughts exactly. I’m still split, but noticing her criticism as well. As well as Obama’s “unity” factor.
Also what Kablooie said - she’s being really ungracious and it’s her own fault for thinking that she was entitled to the Presidency because her last name is Clinton.
How dare that uppity Negro get out of his place and actually make her have to fight for the nomination. /snark
She should have fired Mark Penn when he screwed her over in Iowa - but then again, this guy’s connected to the DLC leadership; and they always find or create ways to lose campaigns they should be winning.
If Hillary doesn’t do something fast, she is about to become the Democrats, Huckabee.
I think she has all her chips on the table for this next debate. Maybe she can find one more bunny to pull out of her hat, if she doesn’t, it’s time to bow out with grace and honor.
It would also be nice if when Obama wins a state, she would congratulate him in her speech. It seems it’s the right thing to do.
McCain’s speech last night was pitiful. As far as speakers go, he’s just the opposite of Obama.
Karla @ 9:
Amen! Amen!
Weee! Just felt the sonic boom as the space shuttle returns to earth. One of the cheap thrills of living in Florida.
Texas is too macho for Hillary.
Men like women who are poised, objective and open to diaolog without sounding patronizing. . Sadly Hillary is not one of those women, she is smart and she knows her policies, but her code of conduct is shrilly. Refusing to give a concession speech to Obama for two straight nights of losses is considered verry unsportsman-like and it is a side of her character that is not liked. Playing dirty does not help her image.
Some people will get mad at my comment, but macho men are a reality and the Democrat ones are chosing Obama 2 to 1.
sorry…but I feel very strongly that the Dems will lose if Obama is the nominee….think many of these “white guys’ voting for him are crossovers from the Repugs….same with the young people, while it’s great to see them engaged have a very strong feeling when November comes around they will “have other things to do”….this very eerily reminds me of the massive anti-war vote that McGovern got in the nomination process but we lost heavily in the general……..
I’m like everyone above said..it’s NAFTA
but I will vote for whomever is the Dem nominee……….
Time to go, Hillary. You had your chance and you blew it with your targeted strategy and your feelings of “inevitability.”
For the good of the party, step aside and let Obama run.
“I love the smell of napalm in the morning.”
Maybe they should’ve called it ” Hawaii 10-0,” as Sen. Barack Obama now has ten straight wins after besting Sen. Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s Hawaii caucuses.
I love how she uses speeches to convince us that speeches don’t matter. Won’t anyone on her staff tell her that that’s moronic.
At the debate, she’s probably say “Thanks for having this debate, finally, Barack. Now I can say what I’ve wanted to say for weeks: Talk is cheap”
Her campaign people are idiots.
Let’s go Texas and end this nonsense!
Hooray!
i wouldn’t actually count hillary out until AFTER a cuple more large primaries like texas and ohio.
if she doesn’t at least win them then ya shes toast
I think Hillary may have to start talking about “hope” in her speeches, because it is starting to look like that is all she has left.
After the Potomic Primary I said Clinton would be finished by March 4th. My prediction is becoming more evident. Obama is aleady even in Texas and I don’t think she has ever beaten him in a race this close.
There isn’t much Clinton can do now. She reinvented herself too many times to know what she stands for and she, and the Obamentum has snowballed all across the country.
My next prediction will be by next week Obama will be up 10 points in the national polls.
pissed off patricia @ 15:
What the heck? Lucky…
grochi harzep @ 22:
Don’t worry, got it covered :)
White moderate/conservative men, in the north and south alike, voting for a black man? No big surprise there.
When Obama takes the White House, hopefully this will once and for all expose race-baiting party activists for the destructive, manipulative scumbags they truly are. And that goes for both sides of the aisle!
NAFTA won’t go away, no matter who is the nominee, nobody will get rid of NAFTA.The biggest fairy tale on the campaign trail.
No Democrat, no Republican will get rid of NAFTA.
Tweety finally asked the question;What are his accomplishments? Exactly what bills that he authored,have passed.I know he introduced quite a few but which ones passed?Don’t get me wrong,I like both candidates.And will be very happy with either one.But,We should be asking this question ……….Exactly,what are his accomplishments?
And I ask the very same question of HRC as well.
Fil @ 28:
Not even Ron Paul? LOLz.
grumpyoldvet @ 17:
I appreciate your point-of-view and experience, but I have to disagree. Hillary vs. McCain would be like Kerry vs. Bush in 2004. The key issue for our time is Iraq and Hillary is in the same difficult position Kerry was. Plus, can you imagine Obama vs. McCain in debates? Obama would eviscerate him!
In 2000 rightwingers voted for Bush because you would like to have a beer with him and Gore was to elitist.
In 2008 democrats want Obama to be the democratic nominee because he “inspires so much” and Hillary is uncool.
Different group of voters, but same mindset.
grumpyoldvet@17: Big differance from then and now. McGovern voters where the left end of the democratic party and we never had the middle of the party. Whats happening today is very differant. Obama is reaching all ends of the party and indepentants. Apples and oranges.
Obama is even converting mild Republicans into Obamicans. Something Hillary cannot do, she does the opposite, she pushes Reagan Democrats to McCain.
On this mornings Carpetbagger Report Steve cross posted the Amendment 4882 Vote story from Liberal Nation.
The vote was an issue of substance and offers contrast in the Candidates on many levels.
Background analysis of this story would be helpful.
grumpyoldvet @ 17:
yes your right! ive got an old korean war shipmate from arkansaw, hes an old die hard republican, we email some! and hes told me many repigs are voteing for obama in the primarys, but are going with mccsnain in the general, i dont see obama or mccsnoodle winning the national election , if its not diebold that screws us it will be voter registration fraud , and when that voters in the voteing booth even if he said he was for obama , he,ll be scared of what influence the blacks will have in this country, face it americas not that far from the days of black and whites drinking fountains at the grayhound bus station, and clintons just a corporate clone!
AshWilliams @ 26:
Atta boy AshWillims jump in with both feet!
sorry i meant clinton when i said mccsnoodel
AshWilliams @ 30:
A clear reference was made to “nominee.”
Like Dennis “Department of Peace” Kucinich, Ron “The Isolationist” Paul has good intentions, but is way too quirky to ever get elected president, much less secure a party nomination.
mudshark @ 29:
A big Obama accomplishment is the commitment not to take money from lobbyists. How many have been willing to do that?
He is committed to lobbying and ethics reform, perhaps the biggest issue of all in Washington.
Honest Leadership and Open Government Act
The Congressional Ethics Enforcement Commission Act
The Transparency and Integrity in Earmarks Act
The Curtailing Lobbyist Effectiveness through Advance Notification, Updates, and Posting Act (The CLEAN UP Act)
But I guess Tweety doesn’t give much weight to that kind of work.
kablooie @ 4:
Gee, ya think? Where have you been. Hillary doesn’t even inspire her own husband. Chelsea looked like the typical tourist in Hawaii yesterday. The same kind of “puritan” that came off the Mayflower and cleansed all the natives. Not gonna’ work.
Obama’s website claims they have just had their 500,000th YTD 2008 donation.
And I went to CNN’s election site and tallied up the state-by-state vote counts - I would ask someone to verify my math unless I added it up wrong - but I came to a figure of over 10 million votes cast for Obama in the primaries to date.
10 million. Yes we can.
Surprise. The Democrats have found a way to throw another Presidential contest.
Run the Most Liberal Member of the Senate who has No Accomplishments, No Experience, and a Creey Cultic Appeal to Moonbat Leftists against an Establishment Moderate who has been a Media Darling for twenty years.
I thank you, and President McCain thanks you.
Fil @ 34:
Of course hindsight is always 20-20, but Hillary’s high negatives (even before the first primary) foretold what is unfolding before us now.
The first 100 days
Universal Healthcare
Take the earnings cap off of Social Security
Exile all Republicans to Elba
Mike Meyer @ 32:
I don’t think I’ll ever understand the criticism of his message. Inspiration and hope are now something to be taken sparingly or with a grain of salt?
And as far as the “Hillary is uncool” thing goes, for me it’s not so much as she’s “uncool” as acting “uncool”. Constant negative campaigning isn’t winning my vote.
peaceful easy feeling @ 39:
Hehe, sorry didn’t see that.
CalGeorge @ 40:
Thank you for that,but did they pass?…..
Cal Worthington?
Floridiot @ 45:
Can’t happen soon enough.
It looks like Obama has the nomination wrapped up. It will be interesting to see how he handles the Republican attack machine, which will be a hundred times worse than anything Hillary has thrown at him.